Events / Sean Calvert / 24 April 2011 /

There's a multitude of clay court tournaments for Sean Calvert to pick from in his weekly tennis betting preview and with no Nadal around at least there's a chance of picking a winner at a healthy price

My two long shots against Rafa Nadal turned out to be rather disappointing last week in Barcelona, but it is a pretty thankless task trying to find someone to beat the world number one on the red dirt - just ask David Ferrer.

At least we don't have Nadal to think about this week, as he is taking a break and there are three clay-court events to choose from in which the players can pick up a red dirt title without worrying about Rafa.

The Belgrade event should be a good one for spectators and for those with notebooks, as Novak Djokovic plays his first clay tournament of the year in his home country, while there's a welcome return to the tour for Fernando Gonzalez too after eight months out with injury.

The Munich event looks very tough to call, but the one I like the look of this week takes place in Portugal, where the Estoril Open takes centre stage.

Number one seed is the man who let us down last week with a feeble effort in Barcelona and that man is Robin Soderling, who's also favourite this week at around [4.0].

That doesn't appeal much though, as the top half of the draw looks very competitive and Sod's form has tailed off since picking up injuries lately and it might be worth looking longer term with the Swede.

He went through a similar spell of poor form ahead of Roland Garros in both 2009 and 2010, but still went on to reach the French Open final, so it might be worth investing in the [46.0] there rather than a short price in Estoril, where it's Robin's debut this week.

The other big names in that tough top half are Juan Martin Del Potro, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Thomaz Bellucci, along with more than capable red dirt players such as Pablo Andujar, Pablo Cuevas and Jeremy Chardy.

Del Potro is playing his first match on clay since his French Open semi-final loss to Roger Federer back in 2009, so he might a bit too rusty to back at a similar price to Soderling.

Tsonga also looks poor value at around [8.0] with no final on the red dirt in his entire career and only one semi (Casablanca, 2008) to speak of on the surface in recent memory.

The big Frenchman's game and mentality aren't really suited to this surface, but he's capable of upsetting either Soderling or Del Potro given the opportunity.

The bottom half looks the place to concentrate on for a bit of value and two that stand out for me are Gilles Simon at around [10.0] and Frederico Gil at around [20.0].

Fernando Verdasco is the high seed in the bottom half, but the omens aren't great for him at a skinny-looking [7.0] after a poor run of form and added to that, Verdasco has never won a match in Estoril - going out in the first round in his two prior visits.

Simon looks to have a comfortable draw, with Milos Raonic, who has a tricky opener against Igor Andreev, being the other seed in his quarter.

The Frenchman has suffered a few annoying injuries of late, which is a worry, but he is the only player in the top-eight seeds (apart from Verdasco) with any experience of conditions in Estoril and a winning record at the venue.

He reached the quarters in 2009, losing to two-time champion Albert Montanes and he will be expecting a strong show this week.

The bigger priced of my two fancies, Gil, always gives 100 per cent here and was rewarded in 2010 with a place in the final, which was a boost for Portuguese tennis and the tournament.

The home hope has been in good form elsewhere too, with a quarter-final showing in the Monte-Carlo Masters recently (lost to Murray), posting wins over Gael Monfils and Florian Mayer in the process.

Doing well at this event will almost certainly be one of the Lisbon-born world number 64's main aims for 2011 and he's been given the draw to do so, with the bottom half littered with low-ranked wild cards and jobbing red dirt ballers such as Victor Hanescu, Daniel Gimeno-Traver, and Carlos Berlocq.

Recommended Bets
Back to lay Gilles Simon at [10.0]
Back to lay Frederico Gil at [20.0]

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