Events / Sean Calvert / 20 July 2009 /

The German Open has been won by the world number one or two for five of the last seven years. So with both absent this week, who does Sean Calvert believe will prevail in Hamburg?

Last week was slightly disappointing, as my [16.0] tip Juan Monaco made the final in Bastad, but was beaten by Robin Soderling.

My advice to lay Soderling put a large dent in the Monaco profits, but we were still just about in the green figures and there's another clay court event this week that has attracted a very decent field.

The German Open in Hamburg has been won by either Roger Federer or Rafa Nadal in five of the last seven years, but with both of the world's top two out of action currently, the number one seed is once again Gilles Simon.

The Frenchman should enjoy it while he can, as his world ranking of seven won't last long on current form.

Simon has failed to make it past the quarter-finals of any event since February and last won a tournament in September 2008, so I think it's fair to assume that a world number seven ranking is likely to be the best he'll achieve for the foreseeable future.

The layers agree, rating six players more likely to claim the Hamburg title ahead of the Nice born 24-year-old and giving him a quote of around [17.0].

My lack of faith in Simon means of course that his quarter of the draw is wide open and the player I like the look of to take advantage is fellow Swiss resident Stanislas Wawrinka.

The world number 19 is playing some decent stuff at the moment, having rather bizarrely warmed up for Wimbledon by winning a clay court challenger in his home country.

He followed that up with a good run at SW19, culminating in that epic last 16 clash with Andy Murray which Stan perhaps should have won, but it shows that he is hitting the ball well and I expect him to continue his impressive recent displays here.

The Swiss number two has an outstanding 16-6 record on the red dirt this year and has only been beaten by the best.

Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Juan Martin Del Potro (twice) and Nikolay Davydenko are the only players to have defeated Wawrinka on the clay in 2009 and he won't be facing any of those here (with the possible exception of Davydenko in the final).

Although a fine hard court exponent, clay is regarded as Wawrinka's best surface and a player of his ability should really have more than one ATP title and five challenger titles to his name.

All of those titles have come on the red dirt and at around [11.0] it is worth chancing that he can overcome the challenge of a couple of fancied players in the adjacent section of the draw.

Phillip Kohlschreiber was disappointing last week in Stuttgart, losing to Lukasz Kubot in straight sets despite starting at around the [1.10] mark for that second round clash, but prior to that he was in fine form on the clay.

The German's poor record of one win in five visits to Hamburg and his questionable injury record make him one to avoid this week at odds of around [11.0], but he has the talent to match the best in this event if fit and firing.

Also in that section of the draw is Bastad winner Soderling [5.5], who while not exactly mirroring his Roland Garros form in his homeland, did enough to win and he is likely to be a danger again this week.

It's hard to see Soderling winning back-to-back titles though and the rest of the opposition in the top half of the draw looks poor.

The likes of Nicolas Almagro [23.0], Jurgen Melzer [42.0], Paul-Henri Mathieu [67.0] and Victor Troicki [70.0] are unlikely to figure in the latter stages, but the bottom half of the draw looks wide open.

Number two seed and joint favourite with Soderling is Nikolay Davydenko [5.5], but as ever with the Russian you take your chances on which Davy will turn up.

The one that lost to Fabio Fognini last week in Stuttgart or the one that hammered Fernando Verdasco in straight sets at Roland Garros?

The world number 11 has both of the Stuttgart finalists, Jeremy Chardy [26.0] and Victor Hanescu [41.0] in his quarter, as well as mercurial countryman Igor Andreev [34.0], so I don't fancy Davy's chances of progressing to the quarters.

The final section of the draw is hard to call, but for a real outside bet how about Jose Acasuso at around the [85] mark?

The laid back Argentine gave Federer a tough workout on the dirt at Roland Garros and should really have been two sets up on the Swiss maestro before losing in four.

He followed that up with a wholly predictable retirement at Wimbledon and lost to eventual champion Chardy in Stuttgart, where he was a finalist three years ago and Acasuso has good memories of Hamburg too, having reached the semis here the same year.

The opposition in the final quarter looks far from tough with the likes of David Ferrer [11.0], Tommy Robredo [13.5], Mischa Zverev [60.0] and Juan Monaco [19.0] the men to beat and at a much bigger price Acasuso is the value.

My two against the field then for the International German Open are Stanislas Wawrinka at around [11.0] and a small stakes interest in Jose Acasuso at [85.0].

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