Events / Sean Calvert / 04 January 2010 / 1

Sean Calvert previews the three tournaments taking place this week including why Rafael Nadal can build on yesterday's win, Marin Cilic can come good on familiar territory and a seve-volleying Frenchman can "go deep" at a huge price.

Tennis players are a funny breed. Here we are, not even a week into 2010 and we've already seen one of the fiercest critics of the supposedly exhausting and physically draining ATP Tour calendar into his second event of the year.

Yes, Rafa Nadal - the man whose constant whining about the schedule is as much a part of the tour as Andy Murray failing to win a Slam - has one 'title' under his belt already and is after another.

Nadal's bank balance has clearly taken preference over his suspect knees so far in the New Year as he aims for a quickfire double in the Qatar Open in Doha.

After the Spaniard's straight sets win over Robin Soderling in the exhibition event in Abu Dhabi at the weekend, Nadal suggested that he's playing his best tennis since Roland Garros last year.

This is great news for Nadal fans, as he has been awful at times since the French Open, but the draw here in Doha has given the world number two an outstanding chance to boost his confidence ahead of the defence of his Australian Open title later this month.

The 'Pearl de Manacor' has been placed in the bottom half of the draw, where his main challengers will be Mikhail Youzhny and Viktor Troicki, neither of whom are likely to have the consistency required to beat Nadal.

Also in the bottom half and worthy of a mention is the wildcard handed to Younes El Aynaoui, the flamboyant Moroccan, who hasn't played a tour level match since the qualifiers of Halle last year and at 38 years old, isn't likely to play many more.

An exciting shotmaker to rival the best on his day, it will be great to see him back on the tour however briefly, as he spends more time on the Champions Tour these days, but at [500], hopes aren't high for the former world number 14.

In the top half, Roger Federer looks to bounce back from his first ever defeat to Robin Soderling, which occurred in Abu Dhabi last week and he's been installed as [2.14] favourite in an event that he has won on two occasions.

The Swiss maestro has a stellar 15-2 record here, but he will have to get past another of the Abu Dhabi entrants, Nikolay Davydenko, if he wants to get to another final.

Davy ended 2009 like a train and he too scored his first ever victory over Federer recently - at the end of season Masters in London, so the Russian will be buoyant if and when the pair clash again here.

The world number six is a best priced [5.6] to take the Qatar Open title, which looks a little skinny to me after his loss to David Ferrer in Abu Dhabi.

Also in the top half of the draw is Ivo Karlovic, who after a poor season in 2009, has slipped down to number 37 in the rankings and who has not won a match here in two attempts thus far.

The others in the top half are largely European clay courters and barring a sizeable upset or two, this one looks set to be another Federer v Nadal showdown, with the Spaniard clearly the value at [3.25] with a much easier draw.

Elsewhere this week there are events in Brisbane and Chennai and of these two I like the look of Marin Cilic at around [3.0] to retain his title in India.

The Croatian is coming off the back of a great season in 2009 and with further improvement this year, he could start to become a serious Slam contender in 2010.

If Cilic succeeds it will be the first time in his career that he's defended an ATP Tour title, but he has the draw to do it with all of the most dangerous opponents being placed in the opposite half of the draw.

He's proved he can handle the conditions in Chennai and looks strong to reach the final at least.

Brisbane looks by far the toughest event to call and I could feasibly make a case for any one of ten to win the tournament. If I were having a bet on this I'd probably plump for Michael Llodra, who has won titles in early season before and showed signs of a return to his best in Lyon a few months ago.

The French serve-volleyer won this without dropping a set in 2007, when the event was staged in Adelaide and at around [50.0], he might be worth a small wager.

Recommendations:

Back Rafa Nadal to win in Qatar at around [3.25] with a view to trading
Back Marin Cilic to win in Chennai

Longshot of the week:

Michael Llodra to win in Brisbane at around [50]

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1. louise | 04 January 2010

   Why the vitriol toward Rafa, playing in Abu Dhabi? He is quite right, when, he says the tour is too long. F1 drivers get 3 months break and footballers 6 weeks at the end of their respective seasons. Who wants to watch exhausted, injured players at end of season. DavyD and Federer played there also.

   The exhibition was a good practice warm
   up tourney for Doha and AO. Hopefully Rafa can go unto much better things after this confidence boosting win at the weekend.

   Vamos Rafa

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