Events / Sean Calvert / 11 May 2009 /

Sean Calvert assesses the field for the Madrid Masters and concludes that only a certain Serbian is capable of troubling the world number one on clay.

There was further success last week in Estoril, where the advice was to lay number one seed Gilles Simon, who lost to the mighty atom and Javier Mascherano look-alike Albert Montanes in the quarter-finals.

Sadly, David Ferrer was unable to produce, which would have made it a bumper week, but we stay on clay now for the somewhat altered Mutua Madrilena Madrid Open, otherwise known to all as the Madrid Masters.

In order to squeeze the last drops of energy from the players and cash from sponsors the ATP decided in their wisdom to switch the Madrid Masters from an indoor hard court event in October to an outdoor clay tournament in May.

This allows a huge new event called the Shanghai Masters with a whopping $5.25 million prize pot to take place in October, where the Madrid event would normally be.

So, although the Madrid Masters is in its eighth year, it's the first time on clay, which explains why Rafa Nadal has never won it and why Andy Murray is the defending champion.

The courts are brand new and as such it's impossible to say how they will play, although all three courts here have retractable roofs, so there won't be any rain delays.

This is pretty much the last chance for the world's elite to have a competitive tune up on the red dirt before the French Open and it will come as a shock to no one that Nadal is a very warm order for this one on home soil.

The Real Madrid fan won't want to let himself down here and I won't be laying him at around [1.36] having studied the draw.

Nadal is drawn in the top half along with arguably the only player who can test him on clay at the moment - Novak Djokovic - which leaves the bottom half as the place for potentially a bit of back-to-lay value.

Roger Federer [14.0] has once again been given a dream draw, with Andy Roddick [230.00] the highest seed in his quarter and Estoril runner-up James Blake [380.00] a possible last 16 opponent.

Andy Murray [14.5] is in the adjacent quarter to Federer and after his defeat to Juan Monaco in Rome, all eyes will be on the Scot to see how he bounces back.

Murray's elevation to world number three, which took effect this week, is the reason that he has swapped places with Djokovic as the man to avoid Nadal in the draw and with Juan Martin Del Potro as the seed in his quarter, Murray is not without a chance.

It's hard to make much of a case for him defending the Madrid title though following that loss to Monaco in which the Scot looked at times clueless on the red dirt. Others are preferred in that section.

Djokovic [16.0], despite being drawn to meet Nadal in the last four, won't be too upset at the quality of the opposition in his quarter and he is expected to prevail at the expense of the likes of Gilles Simon [270.00] and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga [280.00].

The Serbian has shown recently that he is at long last coming back to his best form after that well publicised change of racquet manufacturer and with a little more belief could have seriously troubled Nadal in Rome.

The Pearl de Manacor looked decidedly shaky under pressure in the first set of that Rome final, which makes Djokovic clearly Nadal's closest rival on clay, although it's all relative as no one else in the game possesses Nadal's will to win.

The world number four's chances of beating Nadal have been reduced by the simple fact that he had to play in Belgrade last week, while Nadal has had his feet up (relatively speaking) since Rome and we all know that stamina is not Novak's strong point.

Nadal has been paired with several decent clay court exponents in his quarter, among them Monaco [430.00], David Ferrer [110.00], Albert Montanes [1000.00], Nicolas Almagro [340.00] and Juan Carlos Ferrero [490.00] as well as Fernando Verdasco [50.0], so he should at least have been made to work by the time the semi-finals come round.

If this event was taking place anywhere other than Madrid, I could possibly see Nadal not going all out prior to Roland Garros, but on home soil I don't envisage him being beaten.

For alternatives, I like Roger Federer's chances of making another final, despite his occasional alarming lapses of concentration and form of late, but those lapses only matter against the very best, who he won't meet until at least the semi-finals.

The Swiss also has 700 ranking points to defend here and he needs to start defending them if he wants to hold onto his world number two slot for much longer.

For long shots, I quite fancy Nikolay Davydenko to go far at around [110.00] should Federer falter and Davy can avoid nemesis James Blake, while perhaps Del Potro can make the semis at an outiright price of [100.00] at the expense of Murray.

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