Events / Sean Calvert / 12 October 2009 /

The season is on the final straight now but there's still plenty of value to be had as Sean Calvert picks the best bets from Asia's premier tennis event.

It was a very successful event in Beijing last week, as my longshot Marin Cilic stormed through to the final and was available to lay outright at around [1.9] from his original price of [17.0].

It could have been even better had the Beijing rain not interrupted at a vital stage of proceedings and had Cilic not failed twice when serving for the second set.

Rafa Nadal didn't enjoy himself quite as much, but was still available to lay at [1.9] from his original [3.0], so all in all it was a great week and we roll on now to the Asian Swing's premier event the $5.25 million Shanghai Masters.

It's a bit of a blow to the tournament and its sponsors that a fatigued Roger Federer misses the event amidst the usual autumnal grumbles from the players regarding the schedule and Andy Murray is also absent with a wrist injury.

The event is played on an outdoor (Greenset) hardcourt surface at the Qi Zhong tennis stadium, which is the same venue that has held the end of season Masters Cup over the past four years.

The only difference being the fact that the Masters Cup was held in late November with the roof closed and it was technically classified as an indoor event, but it's outside now and the surface is generally regarded by the players as quick.

Nadal and Beijing winner Novak Djokovic are the favourites this week, but Nadal is friendless in the market at the moment at [5.4] after being blown away in Beijing by Cilic on a surface that should in theory have suited him.

The Spaniard still looks to be struggling physically and he might find any one of his early opponents - James Blake [150.00], Gael Monfils [85.0] or Fernando Verdasco [25.0] - too much at the moment.

The adjacent quarter in the top half of the draw features US Open champion Juan Martin Del Potro along with Robin Soderling [30.0] and Tokyo winner Jo-Wilfried Tsonga [18] and that section is far from straightforward.

Del Potro was poor in his Tokyo loss to Edouard Roger-Vasselin and he has stated that his next goal is the end of season Masters event in London, so I don't like the Argentine at around [5.5] here after his New York efforts.

Tsonga has found his form nicely of late after an up and down campaign, so I take the Frenchman to proceed from that quarter and if he does so he stands a good chance of back-to-back titles.

The bottom half of the draw looks a little more straightforward, but at this stage of the season it's partially guesswork on the players fitness and motivation.

Andy Roddick [12.00] was poor in a first round shock defeat to Lukasz Kubot in Beijing and has since complained about fatigue after a tough campaign, but can make up for that if he overcomes a tricky opener.

The American faces Stanislas Wawrinka [140.00] first up, which is far from easy, but if he gets through that one Roddick will fancy his chances over Nikolay Davydenko [20.0] and Fernando Gonzalez [65.0], both of whom he has a fine record against.

Djokovic heads up the final quarter and the only concern when backing the Serbian is fitness after a tough week in Beijing.

Djokovic will in all likelihood need to overcome Cilic [17.0] and Tommy Haas to get to the semi finals and that might prove a step too far for the world number three, who overtook Andy Murray in the world rankings with his Beijing efforts.

Haas could prove to be a bit of value here. The German hasn't played since losing to Verdasco in New York, choosing instead to rest and spend time with his family.

He's always targeted this tournament as his autumn goal and at around [120.00] he has to be worth a small back to lay investment in an event where the favourites look beatable.

Recommendations:

Back Haas at around [120] (small stakes) and Tsonga at around [18] (small stakes)

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