Events / Sean Calvert / 22 November 2009 /

Sean Calvert isn't convinced this tournament is all it's made out to be but he's here to make us money from betting on it and a back of US Open champion Juan Martin Del Potro at a big price is our starting point.

It was back to form with a vengeance at the Paris Masters, where my advice to lay Roger Federer turned out to be spot on, although I wasn't expecting it to come good in the first round.

We came within a game or two of finding a [200.0] finalist in Radek Stepanek, who traded all the way down to around [5.0], so happy days for those that got on the 'Step' early doors.

After a long hard season of studying the form and scrutinising player fitness and foibles, we've reached the end-of-year-hit-about, vaguely disguised as a serious tennis tournament, which this year reaches London.

'The best eight players in the world going head-to-head' is probably the marketing spin on this, but of course the reality is that it's just more cash for everyone and none of the top eight really needs any more money.

Which is why this event - wherever it's held - is not easy to predict by any means, but for the final time this year (apart from Davis Cup), I'll have a go.

Let's start from the top and the clear favourite on form would have to be defending champion Novak Djokovic and at around [3.75] the Serbian is vying for favouritism with Federer.

It's asking a lot at this time of year for him to win three tournaments in a row and much will depend on his physical condition, as it should be remembered that Djokovic meekly lost all three matches in this tournament in 2008.

If he's fit he should win the group against three players who he has beaten relatively comfortably recently; who would have thought that Rafa Nadal would be trading at around [10.0] for this earlier on in the year?

Some crushing defeats - not least to Djokovic in Paris - have dented Nadal's confidence and if they had any bottle at all, both Nicolas Almagro and even Tommy Robredo would have put him out of his misery in Bercy before Djokovic got to him.

The standard of Nadal's play is so poor at the moment that it's only his unbelievable will to win that's getting him through matches and he surely won't find as generous opponents as the two Spaniards at the O2.

Nikolay Davydenko is very interesting in Djokovic's group and I wouldn't put anyone off backing him at a handy price of around [16.0].

I tipped the Russian in Paris, where he once again found a way to lose against Robin Soderling, who coincidentally is the final member of Group B and Davy will need to play as he did in Shanghai if he's going to progress from the group.

I don't believe that Soderling ([29.0]) feels at home in this sort of company and he shouldn't qualify from the group, despite having conditions in his favour. He could be worth backing to beat Davy again though at around [2.1].

Over in Group A it's a tough call between Federer, Andy Murray, Juan Martin Del Potro and Fernando Verdasco ([50.0]), with only Verdasco being ruled out on the basis that he, like Soderling, will be happy just to have qualified.

At the prices you would have to take Del Potro ([15.5]) as the bet, based on the fact that he has always stated London as his next target after the US Open and you can't take into account his recent retirements because we've seen it all before from the Argentine.

He is a master at looking down and out with his head bowed, barely appearing able to put one foot in front of the other, but then bursting into life, so don't be surprised if he has been saving himself for this.

Murray ([5.0]) is a strong candidate here, as he loves this sort of situation and has it all to prove after failing this year in the Slams.

I would take Murray and Del Potro to go through, as I don't believe that Federer could care less about this event - in a similar fashion to his disdain of Paris, and he has been beaten by Gilles Simon, Fernando Gonzalez and Murray at this event in recent years.

The Swiss has nothing to prove to anyone of course and he certainly doesn't need the cash or the ranking points, so under those conditions, I can see Murray beating him and Del Potro beating Federer too if the Argentine is physically OK.

Recommendations:

Murray to beat Federer in Group A at [2.26]
Murray to win Group A at [2.54]
Del Potro outright at [15.5]

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