Events / Sean Calvert / 20 October 2008 /

Fresh from tipping Andy Murray at [12.0] to win the Madrid Masters, Sean Calvert is back to look ahead to the St Petersburg Open where he feels that back-to-back wins for Murray may be a step too far and why Marin Cilic is worth an investment.

It was back to form and profit with a bang last week with the success of Andy Murray at [12.0] lining our pockets nicely and with three events to choose from this week there's a decent chance of more to come.

The biggest event of the week is the $1 million St Petersburg Open where Murray is the defending champ and the world number four is on offer at around the [3.7] mark to retain the title.

As good as the Scot is performing at the moment and I do expect him to go far, it's hard to see him winning back to back events and I'll be looking elsewhere for a little more value, particularly as Murray has a tricky first rounder against improving Serb Victor Troicki and then Ernests Gulbis to contend with.

The player that stands out in St Petersburg for my money is Croatian youngster Marin Cilic, who is available at around [12.0].

I like the way that he is progressing and with the kind of form that he is displaying at the moment, no one will fancy facing him and that includes the likes of Murray.

Cilic gave Murray a very tough time in Madrid and he has a nice draw with only Nikolay Davydenko to fear in his quarter.

The 20-year-old has a 2-0 head-to-head record over the Russian however and infamously beat Davydenko here last year when the world number six became embroiled in an incident with the umpire which eventually led to him having points docked for not trying.

I seem to recall that Davydenko couldn't even get his serve in play at all that day and it was a quite pathetic spectacle.

As you would expect, Russians have a decent record here with Marat Safin having claimed the title twice and Mikhail Youzhny once, but there has not been a home success since Youzhny's in 2004 and that run looks set to continue this year.

Also in Cilic's bottom half of the draw lurks the unpredictable Safin, who is fresh from a final appearance in Moscow, but there is little value in backing him at around [8.8].

Safin does appear to have a decent draw, but he can lose to anyone on his day and I prefer the claims of Youzhny at [16.0] in that section to progress to the semis.

The Moscow resident is on a woeful run of three first round exits from his last four events, but if he is to put a few results together before the end of the year - and he's too talented not to - then this is by far the best tournament for him to do it in.

Youzhny was a semi finalist here last year, before losing a tough battle with Murray and has reached the final in the past in addition to his 2004 title and he could go far here at a decent price.

His current form is hard to ignore though and a semi final place is surely the limit of his hopes here this year.

In the top half, Fernando Verdasco lost easily here in the final to Murray last year and his current form is poor, having possibly played too many tournaments this year and he looks one to avoid this time.

The Spaniard hasn't reached a semi final since New Haven in August and at [11] he also looks too short to getting involved with at the moment.

I would expect Mario Ancic [17.5] to provide the bigger danger to Murray in that half, but as ever with Ancic you never quite know what sort of physical shape he is going to be in after a catalogue of injuries over the last few years.

Ancic has only played two events since July and was last seen retiring from the Stockholm Open a couple of weeks ago, so if you're backing him don't be too surprised if he doesn't last the distance.

Overall then, expect a strong showing from Cilic and back him at the current price with a view to laying if he meets Murray in the final.

Finally, over in Lyon, it's always worth backing Marc Gicquel [50.0] with a view to laying later in the event.

This is the only event where Gicquel plays to a higher level than normal and he has reached the final here the last two years in a row, so my advice would be to get on the world number 40 to over perform again despite his current indifferent form.

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