Events / Ben Caudell / 03 April 2009 /

Ben Caudell sat through Del Potro's marathon win over Rafael Nadal last night in a bid to assess the giant Argentine's prospects against Andy Murray tonight. Here's what he's making of it....

Three of the top four seeds are into the Semi-finals of the Sony Ericsson Open for the first time since 1988. If it wasn't for an incredible win for Juan Martin Del Potro, over Rafael Nadal we would have seen all four top ranked players battle it out for the 2009 title.

Incredibly Del Potro overcame a double break 0-3 deficit in the third set to upset all the odds and defeat the world number one 6-4 3-6 7-6. It was the Argentinean who broke first in the ninth game of the first set. Serving out a one-set lead to mark the first time in five matches that he has won even a set against the Spaniard, the Argentine then went on to take another early break in the second set to lead 2-1 before Rafael Nadal staged one of his formidable comebacks. The Spaniard rattled off the next four games to take a 5-2 lead and eventually win the set 6-3.

The Majority of us thought the match was over when Nadal went a double break up in the third and final set to lead 3-0. However it was Del Potro who, with nothing to lose, refused to concede defeat, hitting an array of winners to level the score at 3-3. The match was finally won on a tie break by the 20 year old Argentinean, who will now face Andy Murray in his first ever Master Series 1000 semi-final.

Both of yesterday's predictions came in for us, as Andy Murray dispatched injured Fernando Verdasco 6-1 6-2. We managed to back Murray to win the match @ 1.5 and win the handicap (-3.5 games) @ [2.2].

Today's Selections:

Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG) v Andy Murray (GB) - This match is a tough one to call as both players were in top form when defeating their quarterfinal opponents yesterday. The most surprising win came from the Argentinean who went to town on Rafael Nadal's lack of depth, hitting endless winners with his sweet forehand, stepping in gracefully and dictating play.

Andy Murray will prove to be a tougher proposition for Del Potro to dictate the rallies. The Scot will tirelessly track down each and every point, waiting for that moment to unleash a backhand down the line or a crosscourt forehand.

He will expose Del Potro's awkward sideways movement, and will no doubt mix it up a bit with his flamboyant deft touch. Using the drop shot when required will disrupt the rhythm of play. His tactic to slow down the pace of the ball by using the loop shot will have Del Potro in two minds as to when to go for his winning shots, possibly causing the Argentinean to hit too many unforced errors.

Murray and Del Potro were brought up together on the junior circuit, so know each other's game styles well. Murray has a 2-0 head-to-head over the Argentinean on the senior's tour with both wins coming last year. Del Potro has managed to win a set on both occasions, so I predict that this will be a tight, close fought battle that will go all the way to the wire with Andy Murray the eventual winner.

Selection:

Lay Andy Murray 2-0 @ [2.1]
Back over 23.5 games @ approx [1.9]
Back Andy Murray @ [1.4] to win match

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