Sony Ericsson Open Daily Tips: Nadal is late night value

Events / Sean Calvert / 31 March 2010 /

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Federer may be gone but Sean Calvert doesn't expect an upset for Rafael Nadal tonight

"The late match, at 2am UK time, is Tsonga v Nadal and I can't see Tsonga producing two stunning performances in a row, which he will need to do, so Nadal looks good at [1.6] for a late night punt."

There have been some insane results in Miami over the last couple of days. Sean Calvert believes that order will be restored today as the world number three bids to stop a mercurial Frenchman.

Insanity prevailed once more at the Sony Ericsson Open on Tuesday as Roger Federer crashed out to Tomas Berdych - yes, that Tomas Berdych - the Czech wastrel for whom the phrase 'unfulfilled talent' was invented for.

Also on Tuesday, Benjamin Becker almost took a set off Andy Roddick and Jo Wilfried Tsonga and Fernando Verdasco decided to become tennis players for the day.

Under these bizarre circumstances, I'm happy to have won again with Nicolas Almagro, although quite how the Spaniard managed it in front of a partisan crowd that would put most home South American Davis Cup ties to shame I'm not quite sure.

Onto Wednesday and only two matches to choose from, which are Roddick v Almagro and Rafa Nadal v Tsonga. First up is the Roddick match, so we'll start with that one.

Surprisingly, this pair have never met at any level and you would expect the American to have enough about him to see this through at [1.22], but the way things have gone this week in Key Biscayne I wouldn't count on it. Almagro has been playing some great stuff, but he will have to do better in converting break point chances than he did yesterday in beating Thomaz Bellucci.

The man from Murcia had an incredible 15 chances to break the Brazilian and in the end managed just the three breaks and that won't be good enough against Roddick, who got 71% of his first serves in against Becker yesterday.

Almagro also created 15 chances in the previous round against Jeremy Chardy and took only five of those, so if he can improve on that he has a chance today. I expect at least one breaker as Roddick isn't the best at breaking serve. Indeed, he broke Becker just twice yesterday, whereas the German was broken seven times by Tommy Robredo the day before.

The best bet in this match could prove to be Almagro on the handicap with a start of 4.5 games at [1.8] or back over the total games mark of 21.5 at the same price.

The late match, at 2am UK time, is Tsonga v Nadal and I can't see Tsonga producing two stunning performances in a row, which he will need to do, so Nadal looks good at [1.6] for a late night punt. He leads the head-to-head 4-1, with Tsonga's only win coming on the much quicker surface of Melbourne.

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