Sony Ericsson Open Betting: Lukas to slay the giant

Events / Ben Caudell / 22 March 2012 /

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Lukas Kubot wishes he could play Ivo Karlovic every week if his record against him is anything to go by

"Kubot has a commanding 3-0 head-to-head series lead over Karlovic, with all three matches won in straights sets."

It's not the greatest of days at the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami today but as ever, value is the name of the game. And that comes in the form of Lukas Kubot to beat Ivo Karlovic, says Ben Caudell.

It was a poor start to our daily tips section yesterday with Marinko Matosevic succumbing to a resurgent Robin Haase in straight sets. In fact there were a lot of upsets and unpredictable results on day one that could set the tone for the rest of the week. Beware the favourite.

Although today's schedule of matches has little to offer in the excitement stakes, with very few stand-out bets to get involved with, there are a couple of matches where I think there is value to be had.

Sergei Bubka, son of legendary pole vaulter Sergey Bubka and boyfriend of Victoria Azarenka, is a talented 24 year-old who has one of the most explosive serves on tour (clocked as high as 157mph).

He will face off today against the temperamental Ernests Gulbis, who is on a poor run of results, having lost five of his last six matches when priced as a moderate favourite ([1.20] - [1.49]) and has been knocked out of the first round here in Miami two years on the trot.

Bubka, although ranked over a 100 places below Gulbis in the world rankings at 182, came through two rounds of qualifying and will be acclimatised to the Miami conditions. He can be backed at an attractive [3.10] to make the second round.

Another player who in my eyes should be starting as a slight favourite is Jelena Jankovic. She can be backed at [2.50] to defeat Mona Barthel, a price that will surely shorten in-play.

Although Jankovic has had a few bad results recently, she is known to grind out wins and won't want to lose to the young German starlet, who is a top ten player in the making. The Serbian, ranked twenty one places above Barthel, has a superior match rating and furthermore has decent Miami form, having reached the final here in 2008 and the quarter-final stage in 2011.

But my recommended bet for today is to back Lukasz Kubot @ [1.80] to defeat Ivo Karlovic.

Kubot has a commanding 3-0 head-to-head series lead over Karlovic, with all three matches won in straights sets. The Polish number one defeated Karlovic 6-4 6-2 at Indian Wells last week, has a superior ranking, match rating and predicted chance of winning. Moreover, the big serving Croatian has a poor record in Miami (3-8), including six first round losses.....

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