Events / Ben Caudell / 27 March 2012 /

Ben Caudell was two from two yesterday and is keen on showing more faith in one of the men who came good for us with Nicolas Almagro given the nod over the temperamental Mardy Fish.

Our good run of form continued last night as another clean sweep of value bets further increased our betting balance, propelling us into a good position as we enter the business stages in Miami.

Nicolas Almagro, who was backed at [2.15] to defeat Fernando Verdasco didn't disappoint as he came through pretty comfortably (6-3 6-4) to close the gap to (3-5) in the head-to-head series with his fellow Spaniard.

Juan Monaco saved the best for last as he dispatched of Gael Monfils in three tight sets, as we profited from a tasty [3.15] starting price. There's a full schedule of men's fourth round matches taking place today and some interesting match-ups to get involved in.

I was very impressed with Grigor Dimitrov's third round performance against seventh seed Tomas Berdych, in which the Bulgarian recorded his first career win over a top ten ranked player to set himself up with his first Master Series fourth round tie, where he will meet world number nine Janko Tipsarevic of Serbia.

With both Tomas Berdych and Janko Tipsarevic having similar playing styles - both players hit rather flat on both sides -the twenty two year-old Dimitrov will be brimming with confidence coming into this match-up, knowing that he has very little to lose and all to gain. Dimitrov can be backed at [3.80] in the match odds which is worth having a small punt on. But I'm more interested in backing the Bulgarian +4.5 games @ [1.80].
My second recommendation from today's line-up is to continue to follow Nicolas Almagro's rapid progress on the outdoor hard-courts, a surface in which the Spaniard has won 80% of his last ten matches on. These include wins over Fernando Verdasco, Tomas Berdych, Sam Querrey and Stanislas Wawrinka, all in 2012.

Although Fish has a commanding 3-0 head-to-head series lead over Almagro, the American has been unable to win more than two matches in a row since his loss to Alejandro Falla at the Australian Open. Furthermore, Mardy will no doubt be upset that he has been overlooked once again by tournament organisers who have failed to put the top-ranked American on Stadium court for the fourth American tour match in a row (Indian Wells and Miami).

Almagro, who is on the verge of breaking into the top ten for the second time in his career, holds better overall stats from the last three months on hard-courts. The Spaniard has won five of his last six matches at Master Series level and five of his last six matches in the United States and should therefore be backed at an extremely attractive [2.38] in the match odds.

With all three of their head-to-head matches going to three sets and well over the current game line of 22.5 games, we can expect yet another close three-setter and a back bet of [1.93] on over 22.5 games is also recommended.

Recommended Bets:

Back Dimitrov +4.5 Games @1.80

Back Nicolas Almagro to defeat Mardy Fish @ [2.38]

Back over 22.5 games @ [1.93] Nicolas Almagro v Mardy Fish

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