Events / Ben Caudell / 26 March 2012 /

In-form Ben Caudell likes the look of Nicolas Almagro to get the better of compatriot Fernando Verdasco, whilst Juan Monaco looks over-priced against the worryingly unpredictable Gael Monfils.

It was another great day yesterday with a clean sweep of bets as Garbine Muguruza Blanco of Spain dispatched of Flavia Pennetta in three sets and also by the +4.5 games handicap line. We backed the nineteen year-old at tasty [3.6].

Gilles Simon didn't disappoint either as he swept aside Jurgen Melzer in straight sets to face a fourth round clash with Andy Murray, further filling our coffers after a decent weekend of punting.

Let's hope for more of the same today, starting with an all-Spanish affair between Nicolas Almagro and Fernando Verdasco.

The only reason that Verdasco starts as favourite here in Miami against fellow compatriot Almagro is due to the fact that he has a 5-2 head-to-head series lead. However, I don't think this should be taken into consideration, especially seeing as all seven matches were played on clay-courts. Instead, my recommendation is to back the in-form Almagro at [2.15] in the match odds.

Almagro comes into today's match-up full of confidence, holding a superior ranking - Almagro (12) Verdasco (20) - match rating (match Ratings assess form specific to the current tournament conditions and the opposing player, taking into account head-to-heads) and surface rating.

The Murcia resident has won four of his last five matches on hard-courts and in the United States and only a fortnight ago reached the quarter-finals of Indian Wells defeating Tomas Berdych, Santiago Giraldo and Sam Querrey, before losing to Novak Djokovic 6-3 6-4.

Juan Monaco is another player to look out for today. He faces Frenchman Gael Monfils, a player he holds a 3-2 head-to-head series lead over.

Monaco, who can be backed at [3.15] to defeat Monfils, will benefit from the slow paced surface in Miami. The Argentine will also be well rested after his opponent Yen-Hsun-Lu retired at 5-0 down in the first set, the previous round.

Monaco has won 70% of his last ten matches, five of his last six matches against big servers and has one tournament trophy to his name this year, Vina del Mar. Therefore there is definitely value to be had by backing the Argentine to make it through to the fourth round here for the very first time.

Recommended Bets:

Back Nicolas Almagro @ [2.15] to defeat Fernando Verdasco

Back Juan Monaco to defeat Gael Monfils @ [3.1]

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