Events / Ben Caudell / 28 March 2012 /

Rafael Nadal has moved effortlessly through the draw so far and though tonight''s opponent is the ever-dangerous Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, the court and conditions will be much more to the Spaniard's liking and a straight-sets win is on the cards, says Ben Caudell.

We can look forward to four quarter-final matches being played today as we enter the business end of tournament. There's everything to play for: points to be earned by the players and cash to be won by us punters. Here are two value bets at our disposal that we can take advantage of.

My first recommendation is to back Venus Williams to defeat the in-form Agnieska Radwanska at [2.48] in the match odds market.

Although Radwanska deserves to start as favourite in this tie due to an incredible run of wins so far in 2012 (which has seen the Pole lose only three matches all season and to the same player - Victoria Azarenka), Venus has the hard-hitting power game that Radwanska is known to loathe. Agnieska holds a 3-10 record against big hitting Victoria Azarenka, 0-2 versus Serena Williams and more importantly 1-5 against tonight's opponent Venus.

Indeed, a 5-1 head-to-head series lead over Radwanska bodes well for home favourite Venus with four of her five triumphs being won in straight sets. And that includes a 6-3 6-1 thrashing of the Pole in Miami two years ago, further evidence that Venus is overpriced.

Having had a day's rest after completing a trio of three set epic wins, the multi Grand Slam winner can only get better as the week progresses. She is still a bit of an unknown entity, having played so little in the last twelve months but she can use this to her advantage and continue her run of impressive wins when priced as an underdog.
My second recommendation today is to back Rafael Nadal to defeat Jo Wilfried Tsonga in straights sets at anything above even money.

I believe this match will take a similar route to that of David Ferrer's 6-3 6-3 win over Juan Martin Del Potro late last night, with the conditions favouring the clay courters on the slower stadium court and under lights.

Nadal holds a 6-3 head-to-head series lead over Tsonga with all three U.S hard-court matches being won by the Spaniard including a 2010 Miami win for Nadal over tonight's opponent 6-3 6-2.

Nadal has looked impressive all week on a slow court surface that obviously suits his style of play. He has barely broken sweat from his three earlier round matches, where he has lost a total of only fourteen games.

Having won eight of his last nine matches in Miami, seven of his last eight at Master Series level and six of his last seven when priced as a moderate favourite (1.20 - 1.50) there can be only one winner for me.

Recommended Bets:

Back Venus Williams @ [2.48] to defeat Agnieska Radwanska

Back Rafael Nadal 2-0 @ 2.10 against Jo Wilfried Tsonga

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