Events / Ben Caudell / 01 April 2012 /

Andy Murray plays Novak Djokovic in today's final and though the Serbian goes into the game as the strong favourite, there are good arguments to make in favour of Murray being the value bet. Ben Caudell makes them here...

Former junior foes Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic face off at 18:00 (UK time) this evening in a repeat of the 2009 Miami Masters Final in which the Brit took home the honours with a straight sets victory 6-2 7-5.

With twelve matches played between the pair including a momentous five set thriller at this year's Australian Open, we can foresee another absorbing clash between two heavy weights of the men's game and a match that offers plenty of trading opportunities to get involved in.

World number one Novak Djokovic is priced at [1.45] in the match odds and is the deserved favourite. But Murray, who can be backed at a tasty [3.20] is the player I will be putting my money on to repeat his 2009 heroics.

First of all, Murray will be as fit as a fiddle and no doubt less fatigued than his opponent coming into tonight's final. The Brit required the services of lady luck on his side of the draw, which has seen the world number four reach the final having played only three matches. Thanks to his walkovers against Milos Raonic in the third round and against second favourite Rafael Nadal in the semi-finals, Murray will also be confident, having defeated Djokovic in their most recent match-up (6-2 7-5) in the semi-finals of Dubai.

In fact, although Murray has a losing head-to-head series record against the Serbian (5-7), if we discount the two Grand Slam meetings, the series would be tied at (5-5), Moreover, Murray has won their last five best-of-three set matches played on hard-courts (Dubai 2012, Cincinnati 2011, Miami 2009, Cincinnati 2008, and Toronto 2008).

Another standout stat that has influenced my decision to back Murra,y who spends a lot of his time training in Miami, is the fact that he has a career record of (8-1) in Master Series Finals. Aall of which took place on either indoor or out-door hard-courts.

Andy has won six of his last seven finals (at all levels) and four of his last five against top tenners. Tonight's match will be close affair and will probably be won in three sets. But the value resides with Murray to win his second Miami Master Series title and record a seventh Master Series final match win in a row.

Recommended Bets:

Back Andy Murray @ [3.20] to defeat Novak Djokovic

Back Over 22.5 Games @ [1.93]

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