Events / Ben Caudell / 23 March 2012 /

Frederico Gil of Portugal looks seriously over-priced to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber of Germany, a player whose record in Miami is prety dire. But elsewhere Andy Murray looks worth taking on in several markets against tricky lefty Alejandro Falla, says Ben Caudell.

Another unpredictable day of results saw my recommended bet on Lukas Kubot being matched as low as [1.03] when serving for the match at 5-4 in the final set. Unfortunately for us the Polish number one failed to serve out the match, ending his undefeated 3-0 head-to-head series lead 3-6 7-6 7-6 to Doctor Ivo (Karlovic).

All was not lost yesterday though as Sergei Bubka, who was available at [3.10] defeated Ernests Gulbis in straight sets to set up a second round clash with Gael Monfils, further highlighting a caution when backing any favourites in Miami.

As for today, I start off with Frederico Gil of Portugal, who in my opinion is a big price at [5.0] in the match odds to defeat Philipp Kohlschreiber of Germany. Gil pulled off an impressive first round win over Tomaz Bellucci 6-3 6-4, has a winning record in Miami (6-3) - he won through four rounds in 2009 including qualifying - and will no doubt enjoy Miami's playing conditions. It is also important to take note that Gil's opponent has a dreadful record at the Sony Ericsson Open (1-7) with his only win thanks to his opponent retiring in the first set.

I also feel that Alejandro Falla can cause some serious problems for Andy Murray today. He can be backed at [17.50] to defeat the Brit, a massive price seeing as Murray has lost first round matches at the Sony Ericsson Open in 2011, 2010, 2008, and 2006 and was defeated by Guillermo Garcia Lopez in a first round match in Indian Wells 6-4 6-2 only last week.

Falla is a tricky left-hander who will also relish the slow courts of Miami and therefore a back-to-lay bet is recommended in the match odds market.

Although Murray has a 2-0 head-to-head series lead over the Columbian, both matches were won by less than the handicap line of +6.5 Games, Los Angeles 2010 (7-6 6-1), and Binghampton 2005 (7-6 6-3), therefore my recommendation is to take anything over even money on this line in favour of Falla.

Recommended Bets:

Back Frederico Gil @ [5.0] to defeat Philipp Kohlschreiber
Back Falla +6.5 Games @ [2.0] + (approx.)

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