Events / Sean Calvert / 10 October 2011 /

Andy Murray has won the last two tournaments he's entered and is defending champion in this week's event. With a good draw, plenty of ranking points to defend and red-hot form, he gets the nod over Rafael Nadal, says Sean Calvert.

Mardy Fish couldn't get the job done for us last week in Tokyo - the American falling in the semi finals to Rafa Nadal, so it's on to the final event in the Asian swing, as the Shanghai Masters 1000 takes centre stage this week - or does it?

This $3.24 million event has been stung by withdrawals from such luminaries as Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, plus other top stars of the ilk of Juan Martin Del Potro, Robin Soderling, and Gael Monfils.

So, we have an almost unprecedented situation, where almost half of the top-10 aren't playing in a Masters 1000 event, which will probably add more fuel to the fire when the players meet in Shanghai to discuss their options regarding changes in the calendar.

All of which means that another Nadal v Murray final looks likely in a somewhat weak-looking field and Murray, in particular, will fancy this as defending champion with what appears to be a kind draw.

The Scot's quarter contains Gilles Simon (8-1 head-to-head, Murray), Stan Wawrinka (who has just split with his coach and is in awful form), and Viktor Troicki (4-0 Murray, head-to-head).

It appears that there aren't any dangerous 'floaters' in Murray's quarter either, with only perhaps Thomaz Bellucci capable of a big upset, but the Brazilian has lost seven of his 11 matches on hard-courts this summer.

The adjacent section to Murray's in the bottom half of the draw looks an open affair, with the Scot's potential semi final opponent likely to come from one of Fish, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Marin Cilic or Alexandr Dolgopolov.

Other possibles in that quarter include Bernard Tomic, Ivan Ljubicic, Jurgen Melzer and Kevin Anderson.

I expect Fish and Tsonga to fight it out in a repeat of their recent US Open fourth round clash, with both players battling to reach the ATP World Tour Finals in London in a couple of months time, so they should be up for this one.

It seems unlikely that either will win this week, but at [19.0] and [15.0] respectively, Fish or Tsonga are viable alternatives to Murray in that half of the draw.

Rafa's quarter of the draw looks tougher than Murray's and his potential opponents include one of the in-form pair, Tomas Berdych and Janko Tipsarevic, plus most likely either Ernests Gulbis or David Nalbandian in the third round.

So, there's a chance that Nadal could be beaten before the semi final stage. But should he emerge unscathed from his quarter, the Spaniard won't fear any of the names in the final quarter of the draw.

The likes of David Ferrer, Andy Roddick, Fernando Verdasco and Nicolas Almagro will all be looking to go deep this week without Federer or Djokovic in their quarter of the draw, but none will worry Rafa unduly.

Others in that section that could spring a surprise include Mikhail Youzhny, Milos Raonic, and Juan Carlos Ferrero, but it would be a massive shock if any of the aforementioned players made it to the final here this week.

Tipsarevic appeals at a big price of around [50.0], as he has just won his maiden ATP Tour title. Who's to say he won't back that up this week with confidence flowing?

Nadal, who is trading at around [3.0], has never won this event and will no doubt be determined to put that right before his next scheduled tournament appearance, which is in Paris in a month's time.

But on current form, you would have to give the edge to Murray, who played some sublime tennis in the Tokyo final.

The Scot allowed Rafa just four points in a final set bagel in Japan in which Nadal didn't win a single point on his own first serve. Now that's a stat for the record books.

That sort of form simply can't be ignored and given the fact that Murray has the easier draw and will be desperate to defend his points from last year in his quest to overtake Federer as world number three, Murray must be backed this week at around [3.0].

Some might say that it's fairly typical of the Scot to find his best form when there's no Slam in sight for almost four months, but let's stay on the Murray bandwagon while it's rolling in the Asian swing.

Recommended Bet

Back Murray at [3.0]

Long shot

Tipsarevic at [50.0]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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