Events / Ben Caudell / 18 October 2009 /

With Rafael Nadal hungry for a first ATP title since May and Nikolay Davydenko in the ascendancy, Ben Caudell believes Sunday's final could prove to be a classic.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) v Nikolay Davydenko (RUS)

Saturdays tips provided us with fruitful pickings as Nikolay Davydenko dismantled number two seed Novak Djokovic in three tight sets 4-6 6-4 7-6 in just over three hours. We managed to back the win at [3.1] in the match odds and [5.5] for the 2-1 result.

The Russian now faces number two seed Rafael Nadal , who barely broke sweat as he advanced into the final when countryman Feliciano Lopez retired with a right ankle injury with Nadal leading 6-1, 3-0. Nadal is looking for his first ATP Tour title since May; Davydenko has won three tournaments during the same period, Umag, Hamburg and most recently Kuala Lumpur.

This final will hopefully prove to be a classic. Davydenko is free from any pressure and enjoying every minute of the game. His epic match against Novak Djokovic will have tired him somewhat but the confidence he is exuding will pull him through against the king of mental toughness, Rafael Nadal.

For me, Davydenko should be favourite to win this match. Nadal has looked ill at ease in the previous rounds and is in far from the kind of form he showed earlier in the year. The draw has been kind to him, two of his opponents, Ivan Ljubicic and Feliciano Lopez retired during their matches with the Spaniard and James Blake managed to take Nadal to three sets in the first round.

The Spaniard's serve isn't up to scratch at the moment and for Davydenko, one of the best returners in the game, there will be ample opportunities to break. This is reason enough to back Davydenko at the start of the match. The value is definitely with the Russian and I believe he will rap it up in two.

Selection: Back Nikolay Davydenko @ 2.8 to win match
Back Davydenko 2-0 @5.0

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