Events / Ben Caudell / 15 October 2010 /

Ben Caudell explains to us why all the stats point towards Andy Murray overcoming Argentina's Juan Monaco and booking his place in Sunday's final.

Juan Monaco (ARG) v Andy Murray (GBR)

As predicted in yesterday's daily preview, Brit Andy Murray reached the semi-finals of the Shanghai Masters with a scintillating performance against Jo Wilfried Tsonga, brushing aside the Frenchman in two clinical sets 6-2 6-2.

Murray, who has held serve in 25 of 26 games this week, amassed an incredible percentage of first service points won, 80%. The 23 year-old did not face a single break point on serve and hit five aces on his way to a victory within just 55 minutes, to record a third straight win against Tsonga.

Reaching his fifth semi-final (or better) this year, Murray will now face Juan Monaco of Argentina, a player he is familiar with, having trained with him a lot during his time in Spain. Monaco, the surprise package of the tournament so far, upset the odds from a set down to defeat Jurgen Melzer. The man who in round three knocked out no.1 seed Rafael Nadal.

The head-to-head series between these two is tied at 1-1 with both matches taking place in spring 2009. Each of the games went to three sets with Monaco winning on clay in Rome and Murray on hard in Miami.

Pre-Shanghai, the Argentinean had won only one of seven matches since reaching the finals of Dusseldorf in May of this year. The majority of those losses were played on the hard courts, so it is surprising to see such a dramatic change in form from the Argentine this week. The reason for this could be allied to the fact that Juan Monaco is one of the few clay courts specialists who have adapted their style of play to suit the higher bouncing and faster hard court surfaces.

However, a more plausible explanation is that the standard of player he has so far faced here in Shanghai has not been of the highest quality.

Even though Monaco looks to have recaptured some decent form this week, the stats are heavily in favour of Murray. Murray has now won 10 of his last 11 matches at Master Series level and four of five as the heavy favourite; Monaco has lost six in a row when priced as heavy underdog and four in a row against top 10 players. I can see this match being decided in straight sets for the first time and a Murray win, although the value bet for me will be to back Murray -5.5 Games at approx [2.20].

Selection:

Back Murray -5.5 Games @ 2.20
Back under 20.5 Games @ approx [1.90]

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