Rome Masters Tennis Betting: Day four tips

Events / Ben Caudell / 30 April 2009 /

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'The Worm' can exploit Federer's weaknesses on clay, says Ben Caudell.

We were treated to a full day's play yesterday at the Rome Masterswith number four seed Andy Murray bowing out due to a second round defeat to Juan Monaco of Argentina. It was Murray's first opening-round loss since August 2008 at the Beijing Olympics where he lost to Yen-sun Lu. Having reached the semi-finals of Barcelona a week ago Murray's intentions were apparent early on as he stormed through the first set losing only one game.

Monaco admitted to pre-match nerves and managed to keep calm at the start of the second set breaking Murray twice to even the match at one set all. Monaco, led 4-2 in the deciding set before Murray fought back to 5-4, but clinched the decisive service break in the 11th game. It was his 15th win of the season and avenged his loss to Murray at the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Miami last month. We were successful in backing Juan Monaco @ [4.4] and laying Murray 2-0 @ [1.3], my Tuesday tips.

There happened to be a few upsets yesterday with Nikolay Davydenko, David Ferrer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga joining Murray in the departure lounge. Eleven of the sixteen seeds remain, with the top three players in the world, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, and Novak Djokovic show casing today's play.

Today's Selections:

Roger Federer (SWI) v Radek Stepanek (CZE)
Federer has a 8-2 head-to-head record over the occasionally irritating Radek Stepanek. One of the two wins the Czech has over Federer came this time last year in Rome, a 7-6 7-6 epic which saw Stepanek's famous worm dance take centre stage after his biggest ever win.

The last seven matches between the pair have seen no less than ten tie break sets being played, highlighting the fact that this match could be a close fought battle. Federer played awfully yesterday against the big serving Croat, Ivo Karlovic. The Swiss player lacks confidence in his serve and forehand and I can see Stepanek exploiting the his weaknesses on the clay. I can see this being a tight three set match that could go either way, therefore I will be backing Stepanek +4.5 Games and over's on the total games market.

Selections: Back Stepanek +4.5 Handicap @ [1.8]; Back over 21.5 Games @ [2.0]

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