Events / Sean Calvert / 09 May 2011 /

Alexandr Dolgopolov has lost his way after a fantastic early season run but Sean Calvert is backing him to come good today

Monday at the Foro Italico sees the majority of the first round matches get underway, with the lower ranked players taking centre stage.

There are plenty of intriguing clashes today, but the one that I like the look of is home hope Potito Starace versus Alexandr Dolgopolov, which is scheduled for around 20:30, UK time.

The layers have this one more or less even, with The Dog available to back and [2.0] and that's my best bet today.

The Ukrainian has been struggling lately with three first round losses in a row on the red dirt, which has been something of a surprise given his form on the Golden Swing in South America.

Dolgopolov reached a final and a semi on that swing and moved inside the top-20 in the world rankings in the process, which is a higher level than today's opponent reached at his peak four years ago.

This pair met on the red dirt as recently as February this year in Costa do Sauipe and Dolgopolov came through in straight sets, 6-3, 6-4.

Starace has the advantage of the home crowd support of course, but it's not done him any good at the Foro Italico in the past, as his record here is 6-5 and only once has he reached the last 16 - back in his best season of 2007.

The Italian has lost in the first round in three of his last four tournaments on the red dirt and hasn't beaten a top-25 ranked player since a win over Ivan Ljubicic last summer.

Starace also has a poor record in Masters 1000 events, with five first-round losses in a row at Masters events - three of them to players ranked outside the top-70 in the world.

If The Dog plays to somewhere approaching his best he should win this comfortably and reward his backers at an appealing-looking price.

Recommended Bet
Back Alexandr Dolgopolov to beat Potito Starace at around [2.14]

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