Events / Ben Caudell / 14 August 2010 /

Rafael Nadal is chasing more glory in Toronto but, after an outstanding quarter-final win, Ben Caudell explains why he believes Andy Murray can beat the Spaniard in the last four.

Rafael Nadal (SPA) v Andy Murray (GBR)

Rafael Nadal is on course to become the first player in history to win four consecutive ATP World Tour Masters 1000 titles. The Spaniard came into his quarter-final against Philip Kohlschreiber with a 7-0 head-to-head advantage, but it was the German who got off to a better start taking the first set thanks to Nadal's un-characteristic unforced errors. Order was soon resumed with Nadal dictating the points from the back of the court with a more attack-minded approach. He eventually set himself up for another epic battle against his arch-rival Andy Murray.

Murray breezed through a tired looking David Nalbandian in a display of pure class and calculated aggression. The young Brit was outstanding in all areas of the game as he swept aside the most in-form player on the tour 6-2 6-2.

Having watched the duration of both matches last night, I have to say that Andy Murray was far more impressive in his win over Nalbandian than Nadal was in over Philip Kohlschreiber. The defensively minded Scot was emphatic on serve winning 76% of fist serve points and 59% of second serves, facing just one break point all game. Against Nadal, Murray is going to have to play a similar controlling style of play and perform to the same level if he is going to prevail in this match.

The Spanish bull has a commanding 8-3 head-to-head series lead over Murray, their most recent match was a 6-4 7-6 6-4 win for the Spaniard at this year's Wimbledon. Murray's victories have all come on hard courts. Nadal is 10-0 in all matches and 8-2 on hard, compared with Murray who is 8-2 and 7-3 respectively. Both Players have exceptional records at the Rogers Cup, Nadal and Murray both have tournament wins here (Murray 2009, Nadal 2005) and are currently 9-1 in matches played in Canada.

After yesterdays exemplary performance by Murray, possibly his best all year, and the fact that Nadal hasn't hit top form yet, I have to go with the value bet and back the Scot at what I think is a rather generous 2.42 on offer.

Selection: Back Andy Murray @ 2.42 to win match
Back Andy Murray @ 2.1 to win Set 01

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