Events / Sean Calvert / 09 August 2010 /

The Rogers Cup always attracts a stellar field and this year is no exception. Sean Calvert consults the form and tries to predict who might succeed in Toronto this week.

I appear to be developing a disturbing habit of tipping finalists a week early and it happened again in Washington, when Marcos Baghdatis, my tip from LA, stormed through to the final seven days too late.

Thankfully, that situation won't be occurring again this week, as John Isner has pulled out of the Rogers Cup with fatigue.

I warned in my last column to watch out for David Nalbandian in Washington and that certainly was the case as he returned to form with a bang to claim his first title on American soil.

Talking of America, Andy Roddick's recent poor form has seen him slip out of the world's top 10 ranked players, meaning that the US has no man in the top 10 for the first time since computer rankings began in 1973.

Roddick tries again this week at an event that alternates between Toronto and Montreal and this year it's in Toronto with as usual a world class field for this Masters 1000 event.

I've been advising pretty much all year to avoid the 'big four' (if we can still call them that) at the hard-court Masters events and the only one that appeals this week is Rafa Nadal.

The Spaniard won this in 2008 after beating Roger Federer at Wimbledon without so much as a hard-court warm-up event and he's going for the same again in 2010. Rafa's had a rest since reclaiming the grass-court crown, he comes here fresh and deserves to be the favourite at around [3.65].

You'd think that the US Open would be Rafa's goal for 2010 now, as it's the only major missing from his CV and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he started with a win here, but there are alternatives to be had.

Rafa has been drawn in the same half as Andy Murray, who won this last year and therefore has ranking points to defend and he needs to do it, as he's only 500 or so points ahead of Robin Soderling in fifth at the moment.

Nadal's first and most potent threat should come from LA champion Sam Querrey, who will be rested after losing in the first round in Washington. That might help him and he does have the game to beat Nadal on these courts - he's taken a set off the Spaniard each time they've played.

The remainder of Nadal's quarter should be a straight battle between Marin Cilic and Roddick and the American has the chance for some early revenge over his shock Wimbledon conqueror Yen Hsun Lu in the second round.

Roddick's form is a concern, after disappointing defeats in Atlanta and Washington and he's out to around [32.0], which is not a bad price for the winner of the previous hard-court Masters title of 2010.

Murray's quarter looks tough and Scot has a tricky one first up (in all probability) against a resurgent Xavier Malisse, who beat John Isner and Tomas Berdych in Washington.

Murray also has Fernando Gonzalez, Gael Monfils, David Ferrer, Ernests Gulbis, David Nalbandian and Soderling in his section, so good luck with that lot Andy.

The coach-less Scot will have been deflated by missing a match point in his LA defeat to Querrey and it will take a great performance to bounce back in Toronto with the draw he's faced with.

In the other side of the draw, Federer, who hasn't won this since 2006, is once again paired with Berdych, so the Swiss has a chance of a quick response against his Wimbledon conqueror.

That quarter looks relatively weak though with the likes of Richard Gasquet, Nicolas Almagro, Mikhail Youzhny and Gilles Simon the opposition to Fed and the Berdman.

Simon showed signs of a return to form in Washington when he beat Roddick and took a set off Nalbandian and he looks the one to challenge the big two there.

As I predicted last week, Berdych struggled in Washington and left on bad terms after moaning about his match schedule, but I expect the challenge of Federer to bring the best out of him here.

The Czech has beaten Federer on the last two occasions that they've met and with Berdych trading at [22.0] and Federer at [4.5] I know who the value lies with.

The last quarter also looks weak with the top seeds being Nikolay Davydenko and Novak Djokovic, neither of whom you could back with huge confidence at the moment.

Davy has been beaten by Daniel-Gimeno Traver, Andrey Golubev and a real beating by Juan Ignacio Chela on clay in his last three matches and it's safe to assume he's still struggling after his injury.

Nole, who is playing doubles with Nadal here, should come through against opposition such as Jurgen Melzer, Baghdatis, and Radek Stepanek and his recent improvement makes him the most likely in that quarter.

Djokovic has won this event before and has a 9-2 record here and at over twice the price of Federer, he looks a solid back-to-lay bet.

So, this week I'll be going with Berdych [22.0] and Djokovic [9.6] against the field with maybe a small saver on Roddick if I can get around [40.0] in the hope that Nadal is still on his holidays.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: