Events / Sean Calvert / 16 February 2009 /

Sean Calvert sets up the latest big tournament on the ATP Tour where he fancies the Swedish star to follow up on a good record.

We just about managed to break even last week, thanks to Gael Monfils defying medical science and most recognised logic to make it to the semi finals of the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament in Rotterdam.

A profit would have been nice, particularly considering that this week's event is one of the most unpredictable on the ATP calendar, but undeterred I will attempt to unpick the tangled web that is the Regions Morgan Keegan Championships in Memphis.

The fact that this tournament has been won within the last decade by such notable tennis luminaries as Kenneth Carlsen, Magnus Larsen, Joachim Johansson and last year by Steve Darcis gives an idea of how unpredictable this is to call, however on the plus side, it is therefore a wide open market.

The layers have Andy Roddick as favourite at around [3.5], ahead of Juan Martin Del Potro at [5.5] and last year's finalist Robin Soderling at [8.0], but there are certainly question marks against the top two.

Roddick was beaten for the first time in five meetings by Radek Stepanek in San Jose last week and he doesn't have a particularly good record here of late, having been beaten by the likes of Julien Benneteau, Thomas Enqvist and Soderling here in recent years.

Add that to the fact that no American has won this title since Taylor Dent in 2002 and you have reason enough to oppose Roddick at his current price.

This is the type of event that Del Potro was hoovering up last season, but his woeful effort in defeat to Roger Federer in Melbourne appears to have set him back a bit and a straight sets loss to Mardy Fish in San Jose is an indication of where he is at right now.

Soderling on the other hand has reached the final here both times he has entered and he has by far the easiest draw on paper.

The Swede's withdrawal from Rotterdam due to a lower back injury means that he is coming here fresh and although [8.0] is a little on the short side, Soderling should make it to at least the semi-final stage with relative ease on his favourite surface.

The world number 16 has been drawn in a quarter which contains only Igor Andreev of any note and it's by no means a given that the inconsistent Russian will make it far enough to take his chance against the Swede.

Also in that section of the draw and seeded to meet in the quarter-finals are Radek Stepanek ([13.0]) and Del Potro, but the Czech number five seed rarely if ever does well in back-to-back events and after his run to the title in San Jose, he is overlooked for that reason.

By contrast to that relatively weak section, the top half of the draw looks overcrowded with potential winners and the finalist from that portion is hard to predict.

Any one of Roddick, Marcos Baghdatis ([21.0]), Mardy Fish ([11.0]), James Blake ([15.0]), Sam Querrey ([29.0]) and Tommy Haas ([22.0]) could emerge from that section and there is also Lleyton Hewitt (34.0]) and Kei Nishikori ([67.0]) to add to the mix.

Of these, the best value is perhaps Haas, who has a stellar record in Memphis, having won here three times and reached the semi-finals on three other occasions.

The veteran German claimed the title here as recently as 2007 without dropping a set and also won here ten years ago, beating Jim Courier in the final and it would be an incredible achievement if he went close again.

His career has been blighted by injury in recent years, but if fully fit, he remains a threat in this sort of tournament and if he does still have a title left in him it will most likely be here.

Baghdatis is another who provides interest at around [21.0], because he is likely to start going close at these events soon, now that he has a few events under his belt following injury, but his draw looks tough.

In conclusion, I'll be siding with yet another European success at the Regions Morgan Keegan Championships with Robin Soderling to take the title and as a back-up wager, I fancy Haas to cause problems in the top half of the draw.

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