Events / Sean Calvert / 04 October 2011 /

Finding the value in the Japan Open this week is no easy feat but hard-court specialist Mardy Fish is in good form and can benefit from being on the easier side of the draw.

The two ATP 500 tournaments on the men's tour are the China Open and the Japan Open and I'm focussing on the latter, as withdrawals have hit the more valuable event in Beijing hard.

World number one, Novak Djokovic, is the main loss for the China Open, but Gael Monfils and Nikolay Davydenko have also withdrawn and the event now has Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych as it's main draws, with Andy Roddick losing in the first round.

In contrast, the Japan Open in Tokyo, despite offering considerably less total prize money, can boast Rafa Nadal, Andy Murray, Mardy Fish, and David Ferrer, as the game's stars warm up for next week's Shanghai Masters 1000.

Nadal is the top seed in Tokyo and priced up at around [2.3] to defend the title that he won by beating Monfils in last year's final.

Rafa bounced back nicely from his US Open final loss to Djokovic in good style on clay in the Davis Cup with wins over Tsonga and Richard Gasquet, but he has been vulnerable on hard-courts this year and he doesn't look great value to me.

Nadal has been drawn in the same half as Fish, Janko Tipsarevic - who won his first title in Kuala Lumpur on Sunday - the returning Milos Raonic and Viktor Troicki, who came so close to beating the Spaniard in their semi final here last year.

Any one of those players can give Nadal a run for his money on hard-courts and there are also hard hitters Robin Haase, Dimitry Tursunov and Bernard Tomic floating in the top half - and they can all be dangerous if they're up for it.

Fish has had an excellent hard-court swing and he'll be looking to strengthen his position at number six in the race to be one of the eight players to make the ATP World Tour Finals in London.

The American should be winning ATP 500 events on a reasonably regular basis these days and at around [10.0], and having beaten Nadal in straight sets in Cincinnati in their last meeting this summer, he looks the value in the top half.

Tipsarevic will be full of beans after his win on Sunday, but I can't see his notoriously brittle body lasting the full week when there's a Masters 1000 next week.

Raonic needs matches after a lengthy injury, while Troicki's form is still suspect after an up and down week in Malaysia where he lost in straight sets to Marcos Baghdatis.

Talking of Baghdatis, the Cypriot is Murray's first round opponent in Tokyo and after the Scot won in Bangkok last week, he makes only his second appearance in this tournament where he is yet to win a match..

Murray, who is available to back at around [3.4] usually plays well at this time of the year and should go close, but I'm not convinced he'll be at 100 % with Shanghai more of a priority.

The world number four's main opposition will come in the form of Ferrer, David Nalbandian, and Radek Stepanek in what looks a much weaker half of the draw. Although Baghdatis is no gimme first up.

I have a sneaking regard for the chances of Stepanek this week though at an attractive-looking price of around [36.0] in the best section of the draw.

The veteran Czech had a very good US hard-court swing, winning Washington and only losing to Djokovic in Cincy before suffering an injury at the US Open.

Steps reached the semis here last year, before losing to Monfils and with only the likes of Marco Chiudinelli, Matthew Ebden, and Pablo Andujar in his section, he really only has Ferrer to beat.

That pair are closely matched, as their last four meetings have gone the distance and of course Stepanek has beaten Murray on a hard-court before as well, so he's a bit big at [36.0] this week.

Recommended Bets

Back Fish at [10.0]

Long shot

Stepanek at [36.0]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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