Events / Sean Calvert / 01 January 2012 /

Two monsters of the men's game, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, will both be at Doha this week looking to pick up a one million dollar chque. But the best bet to win it lies elsewhere, says Sean Calvert.

Seemingly no sooner had the lights gone out at the O2 Arena at the World Tour Finals than the ATP Tour begins again with three tournaments in the opening week of the new tennis season.

The big news this week in men's tennis is that eight time Slam winner Ivan Lendl has been signed up to coach three time Slam finalist Andy Murray, who begins his year without Lendl in Australia at the Brisbane International.

It's certainly an interesting and bold move from the Scot to tempt the 51-year-old into his first foray into coaching and it will be fascinating to see if Lendl can squeeze an extra five percent from Murray's game this year.

I said in my recent article about Murray's 2011 year that he needs to bring someone on board on the mental side to help him with certain aspects of his game and if Lendl can fulfil that role then it could turn out to be an astute appointment.

The track record of former 'greats' in coaching isn't fantastic, with the likes of Jimmy Connors and Mats Wilander springing to mind, but there has to be a first time.

That aside, Murray looks a fair bet to win in Brisbane at around [2.0], but I'm concentrating on one of this week's other events for my first wager of the season.

The Qatar ExxonMobil Open in Doha is the wealthiest event of the week and despite being an ATP 250 tournament, there's a $1 million prize fund on offer, which has attracted Rafa Nadal and Roger Federer once more to the 20th anniversary of the event.

Of course, Rafa and Roger were both in action last week at the Mubadala World Tennis Tournament - if you can call it action.

Federer strolled to lacklustre defeats in the United Arab Emirates to both Nadal and Novak Djokovic in straight sets and he faces a repeat of last year's Doha final in the first round this year, as the Swiss has been drawn against Nikolay Davydenko.

The Russian has been poor since that final match a year ago and has slumped to number 41 in the world, but he might retain enough ability to give Fed a match in a tournament where Davy has reached at least the semi final in each of the last four years.

The rest of that quarter of the draw looks weak and the winner of Federer v Davydenko should go on to reach the last four where they will hopefully meet my fancy for this week, Jo Wilfried Tsonga.

The big Frenchman has a straightforward looking quarter which contains a couple of low-ranked wild cards, plus Alex Bogomolov Jr, Dmitry Tursunov and little else.

Tsonga was another who played in the Mubadala World Tennis Tournament last week and despite his loss to Ferrer, which means almost nothing, I rate Jo as the value pick at around [6.0].

Established as a threat to the very best now, the world number six has reached the final in three of his last four Tour level events and he'll be looking for a bit of revenge over Federer this week after losses to the Swiss in two of those finals.

In the top half of the draw, Nadal should come through against the likes of Gael Monfils, Ernests Gulbis, Mikhail Youznhy and Viktor Troicki, but his fitness is a worry and he's yet to win this event in four tries thus far in his career.

I expect Federer to put in a much improved effort from last week's tepid display and he's the man to beat at around [2.75], but I'll take a chance on Tsonga at a more attractive price to pick up his first tournament win of 2012.

Recommended Bet

Back Tsonga at [6.0]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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