Events / Sean Calvert / 03 January 2011 /

The players say they need a rest but after filling their wheelbarrows with sponsors' cash during the 'off season' there's no excuse not to be match fit for the new year. And if fit and firing there should only be one winner, says Sean Calvert

Well, that off-season didn't last long did it? Barely had the crowd left the O2 Arena than those poor exhausted tennis players were back banging out exhibitions around the world rather than getting the rest that they say they're denied by the ATP calendar.

This week they've been coining it in at an Abu Dhabi exhibition ahead of the opening ranking events of the year, which are in Chennai, Brisbane and Doha and it's the latter event which has drawn the attention of the big guns.

The Qatar Exxon Mobil Open was the only event that Nikolay Davydenko won last season and he is back to defend those ranking points again, but in the complete opposite form to when he arrived here 12 months ago.

Now ranked at 22 in the world after a shocking last half of 2010 following a bad wrist injury, Davy has it all to do this year if he is to climb back into the top 10 and at 29-years-old, it won't be easy for the Russian.

He was ranked number six this time last year and beat Roger Federer and Rafa Nadal on the way to a fine win, but few would bet on that happening again at around [16.0].

Talking of Federer and Nadal, they should both be reasonably match fit after playing each other in Zurich, Madrid and the Abu Dhabi 'World Tennis Championship' a few days ago.

The duo look likely to meet again in the final this coming Sunday, as the opposition below the top two names looks relatively weak.

Nadal's top half of the draw features Davydenko, Ernests Gulbis, Philipp Kohlschreiber and the returning Ivo Karlovic, who plays for the first time since last April.

Gulbis might prove to be the toughest obstacle for the Spaniard, as the hit and miss Latvian has taken a set off Rafa on each on their three previous meetings on three different surfaces.

You never quite know what you're going to get with Gulbis though as can be illustrated by his final quarter of the season on hard-courts, which was poor after a very decent clay-court swing.

Gulbis lost in the last eight to Federer here in 2010, but he did take a set off the Swiss and if you fancy a longshot early on in the year, he would be one of two to consider at around [40.0].

The other big priced runner with arguably a better outside chance is Viktor Troicki, whose final rubber Davis Cup Final victory should give him the confidence that has often been lacking in his game.

The Serbian won the title in Moscow and reached the last four in Basel before his finest hour against Michael Llodra in Belgrade last month, so if he's ever going to step up to be a top 20 player, this will be the time.

Clearly, at around [34.0] Troicki is a speculative choice, due in the main to the presence of Federer in his half of the draw, but Fed has lost here three times in his five tilts at the title, so it's not beyond the realms of possibility that Troicki could beat the Swiss.

The pair have only met once - way back in 2006 - when Fed won in two breakers and Troicki did well here last year, reaching the semis before running into Nadal, so he's no forlorn hope at an attractive price.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the other big name in the bottom half of the draw, but he represents poor value at around [15.0], as he is just making his return to the tour after yet another injury problem.

The big Frenchman lost to Robin Soderling in Abu Dhabi a few days ago and can't be seriously considered on debut here after two months off the tour.

Tsonga has also lost three of his four matches against Troicki and at half the price is half the value in my view.

The other seed in the bottom half is Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, who did beat Nadal towards to end of last season, but the Spaniard didn't really build on that and it would be a huge shock if he walked away with the title here.

So, the Qatar Exxon Mobil Open should see the fourth meeting in a matter of weeks between Nadal and Federer in the final and it's a bit of a toss-up between the two as to the likely winner.

I would personally side with Nadal, who will be mildly irked that he's played here three times without winning it and all things being equal just has the edge on Federer, so he would be the safer bet at around [2.22].

Recommended Bets:
Back Rafa Nadal to win at [2.22]
Back to lay bet: Viktor Troicki at around [34.0]

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