Events / Sean Calvert / 09 November 2008 /

Sean Calvert puts his thinking cap on to predict the winner of the Masters Cup.

The lottery that is the WTA Tour struck a small dent in my green funds last week, as Ana Ivanovic decided to pull a sickie pretty much at the start of the tournament, while Elena Dementieva yet again threw away a winning position to lose in the semis and thereby consigned me to a profitless week.

These events were not entirely unexpected of course and after the ladies' end of year party, sorry serious tennis event, it's the men's turn this week and the final tournament of the season - the $4,450,000 Masters Cup in Shanghai.

Hopefully this should be somewhat easier to predict and at the end of another long season for players and punters alike there are at least a few factors that can be relied upon when trying to find the winner.

Form is useful of course, but history and physical fitness are the best pointers to this event and they lead me to believe that Roger Federer [2.58] will be leaving Shanghai with another hefty paycheque and the trophy about his person.

The Swiss maestro opted to quit prior to his match with James Blake in Paris and this very rare occurrence is a clear pointer to his desire to be in tip-top shape for Shanghai where of course he has a stellar record.

Since qualifying for the first time in 2002, when he went out to Lleyton Hewitt in the semis, Federer has won the title four times and also lost in an epic final to David Nalbandian in his other appearance, leading to a 26-3 record in the event.

This kind of commitment at the very end of another hectic season is testament to Federer's conditioning and his decision to retire in Paris will surely prove beneficial again.

As usual, this event utilises a round robin format in the early stages and the number one seed in the absence of Rafa Nadal has found himself in what looks the most competitive group by some distance.

Joining Fed in the Red Group are Andy Murray [4.2], Andy Roddick [26.0] and Gilles Simon [66.0] and although you would expect Federer and Murray to emerge victorious from this group, Roddick and Simon are dangerous opponents who have victories over the top two this season to their respective names.

Roddick though is yet to make it past the semi-finals in this tournament in four starts and has a distinctly average 8-7 record, which won't be good enough again this time and the American's priorities lie elsewhere in the season, so it's hard to see him causing an upset.

Simon has qualified due to Nadal's absence and he seems to enjoy playing indoors, but looks to be running out of gas after an amazing rise up the rankings this season. It's not going to be Simon's title and the odds of around [66.0] are about right, although I said that about Vera Zvonareva last week!

Murray, of course, is the form player and a relatively early exit in Paris has allowed him a nice rest before his Masters Cup debut and the Scot has the edge over both Simon and Roddick, so I expect he and Federer to go through to the semis.

Federer's incredibly consistent record in this event would suggest that he will win the group and go forward to play the runner-up in the Gold Group, giving him a fine chance of yet another final.

The Gold Group is wide open and it looks to be a case of two form players - one of whom may be tiring - against two who are out of form and probably fitness.

Novak Djokovic [6.0] is the favourite for this group and he looks lay material at around [3.0] after another poor end of season performance so far.

The Serbian has looked jaded for a few months now and he did this last year, losing all three group games after a poor September and October before roaring back in January to take the title in Melbourne.

I can see a similar result again this time for Djokovic and I don't see Nikolay Davydenko [30.0] as being the one to profit from the Serb's malaise.

The Russian is here for the fourth straight year and his record of 5-5 at the Masters Cup with just one semi final appearance does little to change my view, as does his recent lacklustre displays, perhaps due to his overly busy playing schedule.

The form horses are Jo-Wilfried Tsonga [9.4] and Juan Martin Del Potro [25], both of whom left it very late to qualify after last minute surges up the rankings.

Tsonga impressed in victory in Paris and after a light campaign due to injury, he looks the best bet for group success if the French exertions haven't taken too much out of him and that suspect knee.

Del Potro has had an incredible year by anyone other than Federer and Nadal's standards and just qualifying for this must have been little more than a fanciful notion for the Argentine a matter of months ago.

His success has tended to come at the smaller events though and he is yet to prove his ability at the very top end of men's tennis.

Del Potro is yet to beat Federer, Nadal, Murray, Djokovic or Tsonga at any level and of the contenders in Shanghai, he has just a Davis Cup victory over Davydenko and a five set victory over Simon to his name.

His late season efforts must have taken it out of him as well and I can see him being found wanting a touch on energy levels here.

In conclusion then, I fancy a repeat of the US Open Final here with Federer looking a pretty sound bet to boost your coffers in the run-up to Christmas by edging out Murray in the final and Tsonga looks good for the Gold Group at [3.0].

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