Events / Sean Calvert / 30 October 2011 /

Sean Calvert can hardly believe he's written it but Feliciano Lopez is his value selection to win this week's Valencia Open

It was a great week for followers of my [5.9] tip, Marin Cilic, in St Petersburg, as the big Croatian prevailed in the final over Janko Tipsarevic and filled up our accounts nicely.

The tour rumbles on to Valencia and Basel for two ATP 500 tournaments this week and in a bit of bad luck (or bad planning) for Sky Sports, they have chosen to screen the former tournament live.

Presumably, Sky didn't know that Andy Murray has taken a late wild card into the Swiss event, which now boasts Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Murray, as well as the likes of Tomas Berdych, Mardy Fish and Andy Roddick.

By comparison, the Valencia Open 500 has a less than stellar list of entrants, with the exception of Juan Martin Del Potro, Gael Monfils and Jo Wilfried Tsonga.

It also brings up once more the issue of 'player fatigue' and surely Murray has further diluted what little credibility his high-profile whinges about the calendar had by adding another tournament to his schedule so late in the year.

But with TV focusing on Valencia, so will I, and the draw has thrown up a real opportunity for one of the players in the top half.

Defending champion and number one seed, David Ferrer, has already qualified for the ATP World Tour Finals, so doesn't need the points, but this is his event and he won't go down without a fight.

However, Ferrer has been given a tough first round draw against Davis Cup team mate Fernando Verdasco, who has won seven of their 11 career meetings, including their most recent one at the US Open last year.

If Ferrer were to win that match, he would most likely have to face the dangerous John Isner and probably Gilles Simon after that.

So, Ferrer's quarter is tough and with the bottom half accommodating the likes of Del Potro, Tsonga, Monfils, Milos Raonic, Cilic, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Kevin Anderson, Sam Querrey, and Ernests Gulbis, the value surely lies in the second section of the top half of the draw.

This is one of the first and only times that I'll write this in my career, but I have to admit that there is a great chance that Feliciano Lopez could be worth backing this week.

Lopez's section is full of clay-courters, with the only exception (prior to qualifying being decided) being Alex Bogomolov Jr, who Lopez plays in the first round.

Lopez has been in rare form lately, capped by a run to the semi finals of Shanghai on hard-courts a few weeks ago, where he beat the likes of Berdych and Tipsarevic, plus his first round opponent here, Bogomolov Jr.

With Lopez being Lopez, it's distinctly possible that he'll lose in the first round here, but at a price of around [36.0] available, it's worth investing some of our Cilic winnings in the Spaniard this week.

If he gets past Bogomolov Jr first up, there's no one in his quarter that Lopez has a negative head-to-head against and the lefty also holds a 6-5 advantage over Ferrer, who he could meet in the semi finals.

To add to that, Lopez has won all three of his meetings with Ferrer that have taken place on an indoor hard-court and so there's every chance that he would be the winner of that potential clash.

As I've said, the bottom half looks incredibly tough to call, with my favourite being Tsonga, who beat Del Potro to win in Vienna on Sunday, but I'd rather take a chance and side with the huge price of Lopez than get involved at short prices in that bottom section of the draw.

Recommended Bet
Back Lopez at [36.0]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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