Events / Sean Calvert / 07 August 2011 / 1

The big guns are warming up for the north American hard court swing and first stop is the Rogers Cup in Montreal where the reigning champ is one A.Murray. Sean Calvert senses a repeat performance

A disappointing performance from Viktor Troicki in the last eight in Washington put paid to our hopes in the Legg Mason Classic and we move on swiftly to the first Masters event of the north American hard-court swing.

The Rogers Cup takes place in Montreal this year and as usual it boasts all of the big names in men's tennis (apart from the injured Andy Roddick and Robin Soderling), with Novak Djokovic, Rafa Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray all making their first tournament appearances since Wimbledon.

And the omens are good that one of the aforementioned four will take home the title in Montreal this week.

Since 2004, the Rogers Cup has always been won by a top four ranked player - the only ATP Masters 1000 event that has such a record - and Murray is looking for his own piece of history this week.

Two-time defending champion, Murray, will become the first player since Ivan Lendl to win three Rogers Cups in a row if he comes out on top this week and he has been handed a decent draw in which to do just that.

The draw in Montreal has a very similar feel to it as the Wimbledon draw did, with Murray alongside Nadal, Tomas Berdych and Mardy Fish, and new world number one Djokovic with Federer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Juan Martin Del Potro.

Murray's half looks the easier, with Fish, David Nalbandian, Stan Wawrinka, Mikhail Youznhy and the resurgent Ernests Gulbis the Scot's main rivals in his quarter, but Murray hasn't actually won a hard-court match since the Australian Open semi-final against David Ferrer.

The lack of hard-court wins shouldn't be a worry though, as Murray came straight to Montreal without a warm-up event in 2009 and won it and none of the other big guns have experienced tournament play recently either, of course.

Murray obviously loves playing in Canada though and he looks the clear value choice at around [7.4] as the main bet.

Djokovic is the man to beat on the men's tour at the moment, but his price of around [2.86] looks a little short considering that recent history is against the Serb.

Since 2001, the best performance achieved by a new world number one in their first tournament since gaining that ranking is Juan Carlos Ferrero's runner-up finish in Bangkok in 2003, so the pressure weighs heavily.

Djokovic won the Rogers Cup in his first appearance in 2007, but hasn't made the final since and his draw looks the hardest of any of the top four seeds, with Nikolay Davydenko probably first up before a meet with Del Potro or Marin Cilic.

Del Potro is the main threat to the Serb, but his Los Angeles straight sets loss to Gulbis was surprising and he's best watched this week at around [17.0].

Djokovic also has John Isner, Marcos Baghdatis, Viktor Troicki and Gael Monfils in his quarter and that [2.86] looks too short all things considered.

In the adjacent section to Nole's, Federer will probably face Bernard Tomic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga early on and the Frenchman will fancy it after memorably coming from 5-1 down in the final set to beat Federer here in 2009 and having bested the Swiss from two sets down at Wimbledon this year.

Federer doesn't have a fantastic record in this, but he has won the Rogers Cup twice and is 26-7 in the event, so he's not to be overlooked at around [6.8]. The Swiss hasn't reached a Masters 1000 final in the last six tries though and hasn't won one since Cincy last year.

Tsonga is one for the shortlist at around [65.0], but it's hard to see him beating Federer and Djokovic or Del Potro plus probably Richard Gasquet to reach the final.

That quarter looks the weakest though, with Nicolas Almagro the other seed in the section.

Nadal's quarter won't have frightened the Spaniard much, with Berdych, Fernando Verdasco, Gilles Simon, and Alexandr Dolgopolov the biggest threats and he looks fairly certain to make the semis, which is the stage he lost at in straights to Murray in Toronto last year.

Murray's biggest threat looks to be Mardy Fish (or perhaps Ernests Gulbis, whose confidence is up after winning in LA), who sensibly pulled out of Washington after a lot of tennis recently and he could be the best outsider at around [65.0].

Fish has never won a match at the Rogers Cup, but he has performed well at other Masters 1000 events in this swing and is in good form, so he might profit from any Murray slip-up.

But this is an event for the top four seeds and Murray is the value at [7.4] to make a bit of history in Montreal.

Recommended Bets
Back Murray at around [7.4]
Best outsider - Fish at [65.0]

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1. federerrfan | 10 August 2011

   Fedex,
   
   marry me !
   
   Anita

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