Events / Sean Calvert / 02 March 2008 /

Sean Calvert talks us through the betting as Robin Soderling takes on Steve Darcis in the final of the Morgan Keegan Champs tonight

Robin Soderling and Steve Darcis face off in the final of the Regions Morgan Keegan Championships tonight in Memphis, with both looking for their first ATP title of 2008.

Soderling has been in sublime form throughout this event - disposing of number one seed Andy Roddick and number four seed Radek Stepanek in the quarters and semis respectively.

The number eight seed and world number 42 is yet to drop his serve in the event so far and has faced just four break points, so Darcis will have his work cut out if he is to upset the odds and claim his second ATP title.

Soderling, who is looking for his third ATP crown, after previous successes in Milan (2004) and Rome (2005) reached the final here in 2006 - losing to three-time champion Tommy Haas - and he clearly enjoys playing in Memphis, having professed his liking for this tournament on a number of occasions.

Soderling is a strong favourite to claim his first success for three seasons, but is perhaps a touch short at the current odds of [1.18] against an opponent who collected the title at Amersfoort as a qualifier last year and defeated Youzhny, Andreev, Simon and Eschauer in the process, so he knows how to play the big matches when he gets on a roll.

Amersfoort was on clay of course and Darcis' record on hard is mediocre at best. The Belgian has been beaten on hard courts this year by the likes of world number 173, Jesse Levine, (in San Jose last week) and he was humbled 6-0, 6-3, 6-0 by Leyton Hewitt in the first round of the Australian Open in January, so perhaps his current outright price of [6.2] is about right.

Soderling is in the best of form at the moment, having beaten Baghdatis, Seppi, Simon and Verdasco to reach the final in Rotterdam last week, but his defeat to Llodra after taking the first set would be slightly concerning for odds-on backers, as would be the Swede's 2-4 record in career finals.

Darcis, however, should by rights have gone out in the first round here when Vinny Spadea served for the match in the final set, but he escaped and that appears to have given him the confidence to believe that a repeat of Amersfoort is a possibility.

He subsequently defeated Jurgen Melzer and then thrashed Benjamin Becker, who had taken out Haas, 6-1 6-0, before rallying from a set down to beat another Swede, veteran Jonas Bjorkman, in the semis.

Soderling's serving this week is clearly the key to this match and if he keeps up the level he has shown thus far there is little doubt that he will emerge victorious, therefore the bet should be Soderling in two at [1.59].

This price is a touch prohibitive for me though and a better value wager could be Soderling to win the first set 6-1 at [8.0] or 6-2 at [5.0].

With no previous form between the pair to go on, anything else is speculative at best, so assuming Soderling can avoid the fitness problems that have hampered his progress over the last couple of years, the player once tipped for big things by Bjorn Borg looks as good an odds-on shot as you're likely to find this weekend.

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