Events / Sean Calvert / 30 January 2012 /

This event does of course lack the glamour of the Australian Open just gone but there's a lively outsider who can come good for us if he's in the mood. Over to you, Guillermo.

The first Slam of 2012 is over and while the likes of Novak Djokovic and the other top stars take some well-deserved time off, it's back to the bread and butter of the tour for the rest of the players.

I managed to come out of the Australian Open Daily Tips in profit, so after a gruelling fortnight of tennis watching and betting, I'm ready to reinvest in this week's tournaments.

There are three ATP 250 events this week - two indoors and one on clay as the Golden Swing begins in South America.

The one I'm focussing on this week though is the PBZ Zagreb Indoor event in Croatia, played on the RuKort hard surface and which is traditionally a happy hunting ground for the home players.

Four of the six Zagreb Indoor tournaments so far have been won by Croatian players and despite Marin Cilic's absence through injury, they still have defending champion Ivan Dodig and former champ Ivan Ljubicic representing them this year.

The early shows of betting for this tournament are slightly misleading, as bizarrely, the second highest ranked player in it is going through qualifying.

Jurgen Melzer decided to enter too late for the main draw or wildcard, so the Austrian world number 33 will most likely pop up on Monday evening and change the appearance of the draw and the betting.

Current favourite at around [5.4] is another former champion, Marcos Baghdatis, but I'm not entirely sure why given that he's infinitely more famous for smashing racquets than smashing tennis these days.

Ljubicic is closing in on his 33rd birthday, but he still retains enough class to win this kind of event in an environment where he has posted the best numbers throughout his career.

Ivan, who trades at around [6.8] has amassed a 150-85 record indoors with six titles in his career and he has an impressive 16-5 record here in his home tournament.

He's often stated how much he dislikes the heat these days and that was the reason for his five set loss in Melbourne against Lukas Lacko, after being two sets up and I expect Ljubicic to be a different proposition this week with conditions in his favour.

The opposition in Ljubicic's top half of the draw includes Ivo Karlovic, Mikhail Youzhny, Andreas Seppi, Sergiy Stakhovsky, and Philipp Petzschner, most of whom have decent records indoors.

But should Melzer be drawn in Ljubicic's half, the Austrian becomes the favourite, as his 6-0 head-to-head record over Ljubicic highlights.

The bottom half of the draw looks wide open, with Baghdatis, Dodig, Robin Haase and Alex Bogomolov Jr the seeds in that section.

Dodig has done little since winning this last year, with 20 first or second round tournament exits since that win and he limped out of the Australian Open through injury, so he doesn't hold much appeal at around [17.0], although he should at least put an effort in with points to defend.

Baghdatis does have a decent record indoors, but he hasn't won a title indoors since Stockholm in 2009, although he has a perfect 5-0 record, having not been back to Zagreb since winning in 2007.

His price seems a little skinny though, all things considered and there's better value to be found elsewhere.

Bogomolov Jr is interesting at around [11.0] but he's yet to reach a final indoors on the ATP Tour and Haase's indoor form is even less inspiring, with just two quarter final spots to his name in these conditions his whole career.

A more appealing prospect at much bigger odds is inconsistent Spaniard, Guillermo Garcia Lopez, who reached the semi finals here last year and who has had some very good results indoors.

He is certainly not one to put your life savings on, but he can beat the very best if he feels like it, as wins indoors over Rafa Nadal, Gael Monfils, John Isner and Melzer prove.

Garcia Lopez is available to back at around [32] and with the uncertainty surrounding Melzer's appearance in the draw putting me off backing Ljubicic, it's worth siding with the man from Albacete, who could easily figure here if he's in the mood.

Recommended Bet

Back Garcia Lopez at [32.0]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: