Events / Ben Caudell / 10 November 2010 /

This is a tournament that David Nalbandian loves and he can cause an upset at the Paris Masters, says Ben Caudell

Andy Murray (GBR) v David Nalbandian (ARG)
David Nalbandian returns to the indoor Masters event in Paris after missing the 2009 tournament due to injury. The Argentine will be hoping to rekindle good memories he has of the penultimate tournament of the season having won here in 2007, and making the final in 2008.
Having dispatched of Valencia Open finalist Marcel Granollers in straight sets in his first round match, Nalbandian comes into Wednesday's match-up with Andy Murray armed with greater experience of the surprisingly fast Parisian courts.
The Argentinian absolutely loves this tournament and has a record to be proud of, with nine wins and one defeat. Murray, on the other hand, will be playing in his fifth Paris Masters event and is yet to win more than two matches on the trot, never going further than the quarter-finals, the Brit's record at this event reads 6-4.
The 28-year-old, ranked 25 in the world, leads the head-to-head series 2-1, which includes a straight sets win over the Brit at the 2008 Paris Masters. Although Murray convincingly won their most recent encounter 6-2, 6-2 at this year's Rogers Cup held in Toronto, Nalbandian came into that match extremely tired and fatigued having previously won nine consecutive matches. In each of their three match-ups the Argentine has started the match as favourite so the [2.76] currently available to back in the match odds offers a decent value bet.
As per usual Murray's odds are generally too short because of the steady flow of UK punters backing their man to succeed. Don't forget that only last week the fiery Scot looked lethargic and out of sorts during his loss against Juan Monaco in Valencia, the only indoor tournament - discounting January's Hopman Cup - that Murray has played all year. This will be David's tenth match this year on the indoor hard courts, a surface he relishes, and the time of year he seems to generate his best results.
My prediction is that Nalbandian will enjoy a better start, and it will take the Scot time to adjust to the faster court surface, this match will be close and could go all the way to a tense final set however the value still resides with Nalbandian from the off.

Recommended Bets:
Back David Nalbandian @ [2.76] to win match
Back David Nalbandian to win first set @ [2.3]
Back Over 22.5 Games @ [1.92]

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