Events / Sean Calvert / 13 November 2011 /

There's home representation in the Paris Masters final in the shape of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga but conditions don't suit the Frenchman and it will be a shock if Federer isn't lifting the title when it all comes to a close, says Sean Calvert

The 2011 BNP Paribas Open comes to a close on Sunday with Roger Federer bidding for a first ever Bercy title.

It was one easy winner and one loser again at the Palais Omnisports yesterday, as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and John Isner went a long way over the 23.5 total games mark, but Federer was too good on the day for Tomas Berdych in the other semi.

Federer served at an impressive 70% of first serves in against Berdych, winning 91% of those points and if he posts anywhere close to those sort of numbers again today, the Swiss should take this match.

Berdych is a better returner on the stats than Tsonga and if the Czech couldn't carve out a break point against Fed, it's tough to see how the Frenchman, who had a three hour epic last night, will.

These slow conditions will also favour Federer, as Tsonga's game plan will be to be aggressive and try and get on top of his opponent, but it's so difficult to hit winners on this court.

If Tsonga goes for too much, the unforced errors will start to add up and he'll get frustrated trying to hit through this surface with these heavy balls.

The pair have met on eight previous occasions, with Federer holding a 5-3 lead overall, but they haven't met on an indoor hard-court since Madrid in 2008, which the Swiss maestro won in straights.

But this Bercy surface isn't really comparable to any other hard-courts and perhaps a more telling stat from their career meetings is the 6-4, 6-2 Federer win on clay in Rome this year.

On the quicker surfaces I would always give the Frenchman a shot against Federer and have had success backing Jo in their recent matches, but I can't see how he can win today unless Fed has a poor day or Tsonga doesn't miss.

Tsonga will have a fair chunk of the crowd on his side of course, and he'll need them after that draining affair against Isner, where he had to save three match points, but I doubt it will be enough.

There's little value to be had in the [1.32] about a Federer win, but the [1.77] about the Swiss in straight sets appeals more.

The total games market also offers an option to back a comfortable win for either man, with 22.5 games being the mark, which I would think would be under at around [1.9].

But the bet I'll be going for today is Federer on the handicap with Tsonga getting a 3.5 game head start.

That trades at around [1.8] and it will be my bet in the final of the 2011 BNP Paribas Masters.

Recommended Bet
Back Federer -3.5 games at [1.8]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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