Events / Sean Calvert / 11 November 2011 /

We're reaching the business end of the Paris Masters and the draw is still full of plenty of star names. Two of them - Andy Murray and Roger Federer - should go through to the semis but we'll need different betting strategies to approach their respective matches.

It was another up and down day in Bercy on Wednesday, with one winning and one losing bet complementing a fine performance and a poor one.

Andy Murray cruised past Andy Roddick as predicted before Alexandr Dolgopolov put in a dreadful display on serve and was taken apart by David Ferrer to end the Ukrainian's season on a sour note.

So, we've reached the quarter finals of the 2011 BNP Paribas Open and the first match up at around 13:00 hours UK time is Murray taking on Tomas Berdych.

The pair have met only three times in their careers and not on a hard-court since 2006, when Berdych beat the Scot in three in Adelaide, so there's no really relevant history to go on.

Berdych is one of the few players with the ability to be able to hit through this slow Court Central at the Palais Omnisports, so I wouldn't discount him at an attractive-looking price of [5.0].

Murray did have the trainer out against Roddick for a slight issue with the leg injury that kept him out of Basel, so there are concerns. But assuming his fitness holds up, this year's courts seem to suit him perfectly.

If Murray is able to move the Czech around back to front and side to side like he did with Roddick, then this should be a relatively routine win for the Scot. But if it turns into a baseline battle, Berdych has a chance.

The Tomas Berdych that beat Roger Federer in Cincy this summer is a match for anyone with his heavy, flat hitting and having qualified for the year-end finals, he should be more relaxed than he has been of late.

It should also be remembered that Berdych took out Murray in straight sets on the slow clay of Roland Garros last year and is a former winner of this event, while Murray is yet to reach the semi finals in Bercy in his career.

I think this one will go Murray's way, but not as easily as his win over Roddick, so the bet has to be Berdych with a 4.5 game start on the handicap at around [1.97].

In the other quarter finals, I expect David Ferrer to record his fourth consecutive win over John Isner with conditions very much in his favour and I won't be touching the Novak Djokovic v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga match. There's far too much guesswork involved in the Serb's fitness in that one.

Roger Federer disposed of Juan Monaco with contempt at the US Open this summer by recording a 6-1, 6-2, 6-0 victory and surely the Argentine's run in Bercy will come to a similar end today.

The luckless Mardy Fish was handing out something of a lesson to Monaco early on in their match yesterday before suffering a recurrence of his hamstring injury and I expect Federer to complete the job today.

Monaco has got to be a little tired after some long matches in the past fortnight and despite showing probably his best form of the year in that spell, he doesn't have the arsenal to hurt the Swiss.

Consistency has been enough against the likes of Donald Young and Gilles Simon, but it wasn't going to be against Fish and it certainly won't be today against an in-form Federer.

The Swiss will win this one with something to spare, despite the slowness of the court and it's worth taking a chance that he can do it -5.5 games at [1.96]

Recommended Bets

Back Berdych + 4.5 games at [1.97]
Back Federer -5.5 games at [1.96]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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