Paris Masters Tips: Art of Waw beats Isner power

Events / Sean Calvert / 08 November 2011 /

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Wawrinka could be celebrating today

"The surface is incredibly slow this year, which means punters have to totally change tack when considering who to back."

Sean Calvert has some dramatic news to report from Paris about the surface of the courts. This will affect your betting so read carefully...

It was a disappointing start to the BNP Paribas Masters on Monday with Milos Raonic losing despite scoring more points in the match against Julien Benneteau.

But it doesn't help anyone when a tournament decides, apparently at random, to totally change the nature of an event by altering the court surface.

The surface at the Palais Omnisports in Bercy is traditionally one of the quickest of the year and was one of the contributory factors in Rafa Nadal opting not to play here this week, but he might be regretting that on the evidence of yesterday.

The surface is incredibly slow this year, which means punters have to totally change tack when considering who to back.

On to Tuesday then. I've already advised backing Michael Llodra against Feli Lopez and, in another of the first round clashes today, I like the chances of Stan Wawrinka over John Isner.

Big John isn't a massive fan of the indoor events and has only played two this year - both of which have resulted in first round losses, the latest coming in Valencia last week to Vasek Pospisil.

Stan has shown signs of improvement lately after splitting with former coach Peter Lundgren and reuniting with his wife and child and he played well in Basel last week, only losing to Roger Federer in the semis.

The slowness of the courts will certainly favour Wawrinka and as in Valencia, where the surface was also slow, Isner shouldn't enjoy these conditions anywhere near as much as the outdoor hard-courts where the heat helps his big serves and forehand to fly.

Stan, whose movement also seemed to be better last week, is available to back at around [1.64] and that looks a decent first bet of the day.

Before that and also on Court One comes the match between French wild card Jeremy Chardy and Valencia champion, Marcel Granollers.

The Spaniard is tricky to win with, as I found out when I tipped him as my long shot to win in St Petersburg a fortnight ago at a big price and of course he ended up winning at similarly handy odds a week later.

But that win in Valencia must have taken a lot out of him and I doubt he'll fancy this against an opponent who, while being an inconsistent sort, has the weapons to be effective on this surface.

Chardy and Granollers have met once before - on clay in 2008 - with Chardy winning and the Frenchman will be by far the fresher after losing early in St Petersburg.

Chardy had a long and successful week in Moscow prior to that when he came through qualifying and reached the semis before losing to Viktor Troicki and after having played seven matches in a week he was entitled to a lull.

That Moscow run came as a bit of a surprise, as Chardy has had a poor year, dropping out of the top-100, but he is a confidence player and hopefully he'll be in a positive frame of mind in his home country this week.

My tip is available to back at around [1.9] to take advantage of a jaded Granollers, who in addition to his singles matches, also played doubles last week and like Chardy, has never won a match at the Palais Omnisports.

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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