Paris Masters Tips: A struggle for half-fit Djokovic

Events / Sean Calvert / 09 November 2011 / 2

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Playing through the pain barrier. But Djokovic may have one eye on the London end of year showdown.

"Dodig was the only player to take a set from Djokovic at this year’s Australian Open and he also defeated Rafa Nadal this summer, so he’s not afraid of beating the best.
It’s guesswork how fit Nole is, but if you fancy a long shot today, this could be the one to choose."

A fully fit Novak Djokovic would make light work of today's opponent in Paris, Ivan Dodig. But the world number one is not fully fit and at worst Dodig represents a good back-to-lay prospect, says Sean Calvert.

Tuesday was another strange and ultimately frustrating day at the BNP Paribas Open with one winner and two painful defeats.

I was particularly sour about Michael Llodra's loss to Feli Lopez after the Frenchman failed to take any of the five set points offered to him in the first set.

When Llodra threw away a 5-1 lead in the breaker I have to admit that a packet of Tesco's Finest Aberdeen Angus Beef Slices could be seen flying its way across my kitchen.

No damage was done however, as it's impossible to get into those vacuum packs, or destroy them without the aid of a sledge hammer or other such industrial tool.

My wallet did feel the pain though, though that was soon assuaged by Jeremy Chardy's one set stroll against Marcel Granollers.

It didn't last however and next up was two hours and 56 minutes of agony watching Stan Wawrinka throw it away against John Isner.

Onto Wednesday then and the question on most people's lips concerns the fitness of Novak Djokovic.

The world number one practiced on Tuesday night and at the risk of sounding cynical, surely Nole is basically here to earn his $1.6 million bonus. The dilemma of course is that everyone knows that and it won't look good if he limps off after half a dozen games.

From a betting perspective, Djokovic is around [1.32] to beat Ivan Dodig, but the Croatian is a quality player and worth a small back-to-lay investment at a tempting [4.1].

Dodig was the only player to take a set from Djokovic at this year's Australian Open and he also defeated Rafa Nadal this summer, so he's not afraid of beating the best.

It's guesswork how fit Nole is, but if you fancy a long shot today, this could be the one to choose.

Another player whose fitness is somewhat questionable is Mardy Fish after a hamstring issue forced him out of Basel, but the American will surely have too much desire for flaky Florian Mayer today.

It will surely be the highlight of Fish's career if he reaches the World Tour Finals and he has to make at least the quarters to do that the way things are panning out so far this week.

A matter of weeks away from his 30th birthday and with the likes of Juan Martin Del Potro likely to overtake him in the rankings next year, this could be Fish's only chance of making the year end championships and I can't see him losing this if he's fit enough.

Mayer meanwhile, is nothing if not unpredictable, and he has ruined many a punters' betting slip over the years with the randomness of his play and tendency to choke.

Nothing illustrates this better than his recent results, which have included a straight sets win over Nadal and a 6-2, 6-2 thumping by Wawrinka.

Fish and Mayer have met on three occasions, with the American leading 2-1 and with his improved fitness I would expect Fish to have the answers to Mayer's all-court game.

They haven't played on a hard-court since 2008, but Fish won both of their meetings on that surface and he's a much classier performer these days.

Mayer has never played in the BNP Paribas Open before and he has a poor record at the end of the season, so combined with Fish's extra desire, I'll be taking the [1.86] on the Minnesotan.

Recommended Bets

Back to lay Dodig at [4.1]
Back Fish at [1.86]

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Volandri | 09 November 2011

As with all your other losing bets this week, I'm not sure about your analysis of the Fish v Mayer match.

For starters, Fish has lost his last 4 matches on indoor hard courts. Mayer on the other hand is in great form at the moment and will pose a massive threat for the under pressure Fish, Mayer in 2 for me.

Do hope u prove me wrong though
Sean Calvert | 11 November 2011

I managed to get that one spot on. A walk in the park for Fish.

You can never really be sure what Mayer is going to bring, or not, to the court.

As you've just proven - it's tough to make the calls on this surface at this time of year, but I'll continue to try my best.