Paris Masters Tips: Murray-conqueror Berdych has Fed in sights

Events / Sean Calvert / 12 November 2011 /

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If his head's right, Berdych can beat anyone

"When Berdych is relaxed and in the mood he can be a devastating opponent and after beating Murray, Federer will hold few fears for my selection.

Sean Calvert previews both semi-finals at the Paris Masters and he foresees an upset of the Swiss maestro

The 2011 BNP Paribas Open continued to frustrate on Friday, as yet again it was one winner and one loser on the day that Novak Djokovic retired from the tournament.

The world number one's withdrawal ahead of his quarter-final against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga came as no surprise to anyone, but Andy Murray's loss to Tomas Berdych from a set ahead raised the odd eyebrow.

Our bet on the Czech with a 4.5 game start eased home with something to spare in the end, but Roger Federer failed to make his handicap mark by the frustrating margin of half a game after a slow start against Juan Monaco.

On to Saturday's semi-finals then and Tsonga's next opponent in his bid for another Bercy crown is John Isner, while Federer and Berdych will meet in the last four in the bottom half of the draw.

For Federer and Berdych, this will be their 14th meeting, with the Swiss holding a 9-4 lead at the moment.

The Czech player has won three of the last four though and the way things have gone this week at the Palais Omnisports I think we have to take a chance on Berdych again at a decent price of [3.8].

When Berdych is relaxed and in the mood he can be a devastating opponent, as I alluded to in my preview of his clash with Murray, and after beating the Scot, Federer will hold few fears for my selection.

The Swiss has been priced up at around [1.14] the previous three occasions he's been beaten by Berdych and if that lengthy encounter with Murray hasn't blunted him physically, there's no reason that the Czech can't upset the odds again.

Federer wasn't overly impressive in his win over the stubborn Monaco on Friday evening, with his backhand misfiring badly and of course his record in this event is average at best, with just one semi-final in eight tries before this year.

Any match of Berdych's is generally won or lost in his head and if you're backing him you have to hope that he's in the right frame of mind to produce his occasionally destructive best.

The Berdman has won 10 of his last 17 sets against the Swiss maestro - all on quicker surfaces than this, but he does have the ability to perform on this awful court with his power, so at the prices he has to be the bet.

The second semi is harder to call, with preference going to Tsonga, but Isner has proven a surprisingly tough nut to crack this week on courts that don't suit him.

Stan Wawrinka should have taken care of the American early on, but Isner's played tough since and outlasted David Ferrer in three last night.

The pair have met on just one occasion, which came in Washington on a hard-court back in 2009 and Isner edged that one in three tight sets.

Tsonga will be the fresher of the two having played a match less and having enjoyed a day off yesterday and with the added benefit of playing in a night match in front of his home crowd, he should be up for this.

But Isner will be no pushover and breaks of serve will be at a premium for these two average returners.

Isner is down at number 220 in the career ratings of first serve percentage return points won and Tsonga's hardly much better at number 157, so a long match is expected.

The total games mark for this one is 23.5 and I expect this match to go over that at a price of around [2].

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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