Events / Sean Calvert / 09 November 2009 /

Fatigue, unpredictable levels of bounce, injuries and the upcoming end of year extravaganza in London will all play a part in who does well in one of the most difficult tournaments of the calendar to bet on but Nikolay Davydenko could go far, says Sean Calvert.

As predicted, Andy Murray proved himself too good for the field in Valencia, while once again injuries meant that both David Ferrer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga withdrew early on and longshot Juan Carlos Ferrero managed to lose after trading at [1.01] in his match with Pablo Cuevas!

Perhaps only Hull City boss Phil Brown can claim that a similar amount of bad luck has befallen him in the sporting world over the past few weeks than I have been subjected to by 'tennis professionals', but as with Brown, things can turn around quickly.

Exactly what is not required after a spell of bad luck though is the most unpredictable tournament in the ATP calendar to be next on the agenda - the Paris Masters.

Picking a winner at the Palais Omnisports in Bercy is the polar opposite of shooting fish in a barrel, as the list of previous titlists shows: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, David Nalbandian, Nikolay Davydenko, Tomas Berdych and Marat Safin have all won here in the last five years, so if you're after a big priced winner - and lets face it we all are - Bercy is the place to do it.

Let's look at the facts - the courts here (indoor hard) keep changing due to complaints from the players and attempts to speed up the surface have achieved only limited success.

The centre court has a reputation for being very slow, but oddly the number one court plays quite a bit quicker, so you'll need to bear this in mind when punting on individual matches.

Rafa Nadal ([7.8]) has been quoted as saying: "It's slow and a lot easier for the players," so if Rafa thinks the surface is slow you can guarantee that conditions are very slow indeed.

Generally, the winner in Bercy is pretty much the last man standing after an extremely long season, which goes some way to explain the poor records of the top seeds at the event.

Roger Federer ([3.5]) has a shocking (for him) 7-6 record and has never been past the quarter finals here - the only event that the great man has ever retired from (against Blake in 2008).

Nadal, despite the courts being set up for him, has also never won here, although he did reach the final in 2007 (lost to Nalbandian).

Novak Djokovic ([5.8]) has a poor 3-4 record in Bercy and has never bettered the last 16, while Andy Murray ([5.3]) has a 5-3 record and has never been past the quarter finals.

US Open champion Juan Martin Del Potro ([11.5]) has an equally bad 2-2 record here and is also carrying a wrist injury, so overall confidence in the market leaders is not exactly high, with the exception of Murray, who should go well again.

Davydenko also has to be high on anyone's short list as he has won here before, has found the best form of his season late on in the year plus the best of the draw with injured Robin Soderling ([40.0]) and swine flu victim Tommy Haas ([200.0]) in his section.

Indeed, the bottom half of the draw that contains Davydenko looks perhaps the easiest to negotiate, with question marks over Tsonga, Nadal and Djokovic, who are also in that section.

Djokovic will be tired after his epic victory over Federer in Basel and will probably save himself for London, while Nadal is clearly nowhere near the player he was last season at the moment, due in part to injury.

Tsonga's wrist caused him problems in Valencia, causing his retirement there, but you would think that he'd put up more of an effort in Bercy seeing as it's home territory for him.

Stepanek, whose form at the moment is good, has a decent record here and at [200.0] he could be in with an outsider's chance, as he keeps match sharp for the Davis Cup clash with Spain in a few week's time.

A good strategy here could prove to be laying Federer in a tournament he cares little about and generally does poorly in, while backing Davydenko plus one of the outsiders with small stakes at a big price.

Recommendations:

Lay Federer at around [3.5]

Back Davydenko at around [21.0] plus one of either Cilic ([50]), Stepanek ([200]) or Tsonga ([32]) as a saver.

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