Events / Sean Calvert / 27 October 2008 /

Sean Calvert talks us through the in-form players, out-of-form players, draw and best bets from the Paris Masters where Roger Federer and Andy Murray look to build on last week's tournament wins and the likes of Gilles Simon make a late charge for Shanghai.

In tennis, as in life, a rich vein of success and profit is often followed by a spectacular crash back down to earth and that was certainly the case last week when following the succes of Andy Murray in Madrid, I managed to successfully predict two first round losses.

In hindsight, I should perhaps not have chosen to concentrate on the St Petersburg Open and opted for a Federer success in Switzerland instead, but where would the fun have been in that?

Moving swiftly on to this week in Paris and Murray's attempt to become the first British player in the open era to win three successive tour titles.

The Scot successfully defended his St Petersburg crown in fine style by hammering poor Andrey Golubev in the final and in the process equalled Mark Cox's British record of consecutive titles stretching back to 1975.

Can Murray make it three? Well, his price has tumbled to ([6.2]) to do so, which is significant in the sense that the Dunblane kid is now rated by the layers as the third best player on the planet ahead of Novak Djokovic ([8.4]).

His improvement has been startling in recent months, but the quality of the opposition was poor in Russia and three consecutive wins is surely a step too far even for a player on such a hot streak.

Murray has also been handed a very tricky looking draw in Rafa Nadal's half and a likely first match against Marcos Baghdatis ([150]) to be followed by a clash with probably Juan Martin Del Potro ([29]) or David Nalbandian ([30]).

Baghdatis, who loves to play in Paris having spent many years living in the city, reached the semi finals here last year and took Nadal the distance before bowing out; and he does have a 2-0 head-to-head record over Murray.

Indeed, the Cypriot is yet to drop a set against the Scot, but he has struggled badly with injuries this year, having played just two events since Wimbledon and retiring from both.

Murray will be desperate to put that record straight, but Baghdatis must first beat Sam Querrey [170] though and that is far from a certainty.

The tough draw that Murray faces is in stark contrast to the bottom half and in particular the final quarter in which Roger Federer ([3.5]) finds himself.

The Swiss has an admittedly tricky first round tie with last week's Lyon champ Robin Soderling [80], but with a 7-0 head-to-head record to boost his confidence, it's hard to see the Swede causing a major shock early doors.

Federer has the out-of-form trio James Blake ([126.0]), Mikhail Youzhny ([120.0]) and David Ferrer ([120.0]) in his quarter and his toughest challenge may well come from Marin Cilic ([100.0)], who I expected to perform well in St Petersburg last week.

I expect Federer to come through though despite his woeful record in the event and in the city of Paris, where he's never claimed a title, but that run has to end sometime and this should be Fed's turn for glory.

As usual the world number two has managed his schedule brilliantly and he looks fresh enough even at the end of the season to take the honours here.

The title in Basel and the victory over fierce rival Nalbandian will have tuned him up nicely and with little to fear early on he looks a sound investment at ([3.5]).

Nadal meanwhile is next best in the betting at [4.0] and his main dangers early on would appear to be Gael Monfils ([100.0]) and three-time Paris champ Marat Safin ([150]), but I expect the Spaniard to reach the semis nevertheless.

The world number one is seeded to take on the winner of Murray's quarter and that may be a step too far for Nadal at this stage of the campaign.

Nalbandian of course is the reigning champ here after a stunning success in 2007 and he has a live chance again at a generous-looking [30.0].

As usual, the Argentine has perked up in the autumn and he is worth a saver with a view to laying at the current prices.

The home challenge will again be without Richard Gasquet, who once more on his own turf has withdrawn through injury, but the Paris crowd will have Jo Wilfried-Tsonga [50] and Gilles Simon to cheer for and both have a decent chance of a good run in this event.

Simon is playing the tennis of his life right now in his quest to land an unlikely spot in the Masters Cup and if he can dredge up one last effort from his aching limbs, he might very well be the best outsider at ([80.0]).

So, it's Fed to finally end his Paris curse for me with small savers on Nalbandian and Simon at the current odds. Well, you can't be too careful after two first round defeats!

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