Events / Ben Caudell / 08 November 2010 /

Ben Caudell has identified Stanislas Wawrinka v Josselin Ouanna as the first round match most likely to witness an upset. Here's why you should be siding with the outsider....

Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) v Josselin Ouanna (FRA)

Today's late night match between home favourite Josselin Ouanna and Swiss No. 02 Stanislas Wawrinka on paper doesn't appear to be the most exciting match to get involved in. However, I believe there is substantial value in siding with the Frenchman, who will have the benefit of playing in front of a Parisian crowd notorious for their bias towards their home grown players. This at times can create an extremely intimidating atmosphere - they are about as bad a crowd as you can find anywhere in the world.

Josselin Ouanna, who is ranked 173 in the world compared with Wawrinka who is ranked a lot higher at 21, comes into tonight's match with the advantage of having played two qualifiers. That's allowed the Frenchman to acclimatise to the court speed and playing conditions the Paris Masters has to offer. The Frenchman defeated the in-form Daniel Gimeno-Traver of Spain, a player ranked 113 places above him, followed by fellow Frenchman Clement Reix (in straight sets) to reach the Paris Masters' main draw for only the second time in his career.

24 year-old Ouanna is known as a big server. His service game will benefit from playing on the faster indoor hard courts and will prove to be his biggest weapon when he faces Wawrinka on centre court tonight. In Qualifying Ouanna defeated Gimeno-Traver 6-4 in the third set; the right-hander was impeccable on serve recording 20 aces and 96% of 1st serve points won. He also managed to hit 14 aces against Reix and saved 5/5 break points in his second qualifying match.

The biggest reason for opposing Wawrinka in this match-up is the fact that he very little to play for at this end of season event. The Swiss all-rounder has had a pretty torrid time since his quarter-final loss to Mikhail Youzhny at the 2010 U.S Open.

Wawrinka is 5-5 in all matches and 4-6 at the Paris Masters, where he has lost in the first round for the past two years. Most notable was his abject performance against another Frenchman, David Guez, (ranked 144 in the world) in the first round at last year's event.

My feeling is that Wawrinka's season is over and he is looking forward to having a much needed rest after a decent playing year. Ouanna is a guy who will enjoy playing on home soil and on a court that gives him the opportunity to win a high percentage of service points. There is big value to be had by backing the Frenchman at [5.0] in the match odds.

Selection:

Back Josselin Ouanna @ [5.0] to win Match
Back Ouanna +4.5 Games @ [1.7] (best bet)

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