Paris Masters Betting: Profit at Murray's expense?

Events / Sean Calvert / 07 November 2011 /

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Can Andy prove Sean wrong and win in Paris?

"Murray comes here on a 16 match winning streak in all competitions, but the Scot is in probably the toughest part of the draw..."

With some big names missing we could see a big-priced winner come good at the Paris event, says Sean Calvert. Could Andy Murray prove him wrong?

Feliciano Lopez's inability to win from a set and 4-2 up meant a disappointing week in Valencia and Lopez should be kicking himself - hopefully hard - after Juan Monaco reached the final from his section of the draw.

With Rafa Nadal plus Juan Martin Del Potro out and perhaps Novak Djokovic also pulling out through injury, this week's final Masters 1000 event of the season has a bit of an end of season feel to it, but it surely presents a great chance for us to make a profit.

If Nole doesn't turn up, the BNP Paribas Masters will go down in the history books as the first ever Masters 1000 event that Andy Murray has started as the number one seed, which I'm sure wouldn't exactly delight the tournament directors.

And with Roger Federer historically treating this event with a hint of apathy at best, there's every chance that we could have another big priced winner to go with those of Robin Soderling, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, David Nalbandian, Nikolay Davydenko and Tomas Berdych in recent years.

Let's start with the favourites first though and Murray comes here on a 16 match winning streak in all competitions, but the Scot is in probably the toughest part of the draw, with Milos Raonic, Andy Roddick, Tomas Berdych, Janko Tipsarevic, Marin Cilic and Fernando Verdasco in his quarter.

The usually fast indoor surface at the Palais Omnisports in Bercy hasn't exactly favoured Murray in the past and the Scot has failed to make it past the quarters here in five visits.

Murray, who trades at around [4.7], has said after practice that the surface this year is 'very, very slow', which is a surprise.

Tipsarevic needs to make the final in Bercy to stand a chance of qualifying for the year end championships and he'll be dangerous if not fatigued after a strong run lately.

I quite like the chances of Raonic in that quarter and he should have the tools to make Roddick's life tough in their potential second round clash. The Canadian will be fresh after missing a substantial part of the season through injury and he's worth a small investment as the best long shot at around [80].

Berdych is another who's in with a shout, but having already more or less qualified for the ATP World Tour Finals, you would think that he'll be saving himself for that rather than trying too hard to emulate his 2005 win here.

The ATP will be hoping that the Czech does qualify after erroneously declaring that he had at the weekend before having to issue a retraction after they double checked the maths.

In the adjacent section to Murray's, Federer will fancy his chances against the likes of a half-injured Mardy Fish, plus Richard Gasquet, Kevin Anderson, Gilles Simon, Radek Stepanek and Florian Mayer.

You have to question Fed's desire in this event though after seven visits that have yet to see him reach the final. However, with the tournament moving next year to even closer to the World Tour Finals, Fed might see this as a last chance to put that right.

I would guess that his priority would be London and I'm not sure his motivation is high enough to take this as well after winning Basel last week and [3.2] looks a bit skinny.

Fish might be a decent bet at [40.0] if he's recovered from a hamstring problem, as he will be desperate to make London and to guarantee a place there he needs to make the final in Bercy.

Jo Wilfried Tsonga and Berdych will also qualify if they make the final and Tsonga will be one to benefit if Djokovic withdraws and as a result his price is very short at around [8.0].

If the surface is as slow as Murray claims, that price doesn't attract me, but it might not worry another Frenchman and a man who loves it here, Gael Monfils.

LaMonf needs to win this to have a chance to make London and he has points to defend in the town of his birth after reaching the final last year. He also reached the final the year before and he benefits from the withdrawal of Del Potro in his section of the draw.

Monfil's price is a little slim at around [10.0] but at least you're fairly sure that he'll be trying this week and with Del Potro out he looks worth an investment.

Long shot
Raonic at around [80.0]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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