Events / Matthew Walton / 24 October 2008 /

"Magical" Matthew Walton looks ahead to the Paris Masters Series starting on Monday where we are well-advised to stay clear of the Nadals, Federers and Murrays and look for big-priced guys such as Tsonga, Roddick and Ferrer. Here's why...

A couple of weeks ago, prior to the Masters Series event in Madrid, we questioned the value of backing either of the two market leaders to win in the Spanish capital - even though it was a high-profile and prestigious tournament and these were, after all, the No.1 and No.2 players in the world.

As it happened, neither Rafael Nadal nor Roger Federer even made the final in Madrid, let alone win the trophy outright.

Now, going into the final Masters Series tournament of the year, starting in Paris on Monday, we're faced with a similar situation. Both players might not even play in France (neither turned out in 2004, 2005 or 2006) but even if they do we'd suggest the answer to this tournament lies some 6,000 miles due East ... in Shanghai.

You see en route to last year's title, David Nalbandian defeated four players who had already qualified for the end of season, cash-laden finale which is the Masters Cup in Shanghai. The Argentine beat David Ferrer, Richard Gasquet, Roger Federer and then Rafael Nadal, all of whom had booked their passage to China in the previous weeks and months of the season.

In the process, Nalbandian jumped from 25th in the ATP Race to 9th spot, missing out agonisingly on a place of his own in the Shanghai showdown. But the spur to his efforts was that elusive place in the world's top eight.

And the same rationale can be applied to the coming week's action. As we have said before, both Nadal and Federer have nothing left to play for this year. Their attendance in Shanghai is mandatory (and highly lucrative) but there's every chance that should they even play in Paris, neither will last the pace. They look to have good 'lay' potential at around the [3.25] mark.

Into that category you must also put Andy Murray, the recent winner in Madrid who even chose to defend his title in St. Petersburg the following week. Question is, has he got any gas left in the tank? That's highly doubtful. Added to a place already assured in the Far East, the Scot, like Nadal and Federer, looks more of a lay than a back with a price probably near [7.0] if not shorter.

Two more players, Novak Djokovic and Nikolay Davydenko, are also through to Shanghai. In the case of Djokovic, he has largely stood still for the last four months (since winning the Masters Series in Rome) and looks in need of a confidence boosting result. If fit and focussed he might well be one to consider over the three market leaders. If a fair price, say [6.0] or [7.0], with a fair draw the claims of Djokovic are self-evident.

As for Davydenko, a winner here in 2006, he retired in St. Petersburg with a wrist injury and so even should the Russian play in Paris a wide berth might well be advisable.

But the way is still open for three players to make up the Masters Cup field and we should expect a good scrap with this number of places up for grabs.

The next eight players in the ATP Race are covered by less than 100 points (and, remember, a win in Paris will net a player 100 points, with 70 for the runner-up and 45 for each semi-finalist).

In the rankings we find Andy Roddick (369) in 6th place followed by David Ferrer (338), Juan Martin Del Potro (337), Gilles Simon (331), James Blake (310), Stanislas Wawrinka (301), Fernando Gonzalez (284) and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (270). All these guys are in with a live chance.

All bar Wawrinka have won tournament this year and all bar Del Potro and Ferrer have made a Grand Slam final or a Masters Series final in the past - so it's clear that these guys have the pedigree and the potential to make a real charge in the event and will be available at [33.0], [50.0] anything up to [100.0].

And this highlights a phenomenon we often see in other sports. Players, or teams, having that extra little incentive to do well over and above the competition or match in question. Football teams wanting to win a match, not just for the three points but to qualify for Europe or golfers who want to avoid losing their tour card by winning a golf tournament or boxers who want to win a fight to secure a world title shot.

In the professional sporting world we expect all competitors to be 'off for their lives' but it still stands that some can be more 'off' than others.

We've written about such matters before, for example when players who are defending their titles and so defending a lot of ranking points or players competing on home soil who have that extra spur of wanting to impress the locals.

With regards to this particular tournament, we should also throw into the mix the recent history of this Masters Series event. The last eight winners all have been quality players but none has been the No.1 seed for the event (the last top seed to win was Andre Agassi in 1999). Once again highlighting the fact that the very top players do seem to take it easy here allowing the likes of Henman, Berdych and Grosjean to win in the last few years.

Although motivation adds maybe just a few percent to overall performance, it's often that tiny fraction which tips the balance towards one player, not another, in a tight contest. And, on the flip-side, consider how the lack of motivation effects some events - football teams without a manager, rugby teams already eliminated from the Heineken Cup ... how bad is Australia's record in dead rubbers of cricket Test Match series?

As such we should take a hint from recent history, as well as common sense and other sporting examples, and view the event in Paris with a fair degree of scepticism when it comes to the leading players. Will they be as motivated as they usually are? And if not, we should use Betfair to try and earn a few quid.

Don't be surprised to see the likes of Nadal, Federer and Murray fail to show in Paris but do be aware that their loss could very well be the gain for the likes of Djokovic, Tsonga, Roddick et al.

Make sure your motivation next week is to make some money on Betfair.

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