Events / Sean Calvert / 17 May 2010 /

As with all events in the week leading up to a Grand Slam, we need to work out who is in this event to go all the way, pick up valuable ranking points and win priceless prize money and who is here just to get "court time". Let's pick the wheat from the chaff, says Sean Calvert.

With just a week to go until the French Open there's one more chance for players to fine-tune their red dirt game and that opportunity comes at a new event on the 2010 tour calendar.

The Kitzbuhel event has bitten the dust this year and been replaced by yet another event in France - their sixth in all (including Roland Garros) on this year's tour.

The Open de Nice Côte d'Azur held at the picturesque Nice Lawn Tennis Club is a chance for the likes of Robin Soderling and Gael Monfils to get some much-needed court time ahead of Paris.

However, with the event coming so close to the start of Roland Garros, it's unlikely that players who feel they are in with a shout in Paris will be busting a gut to win this event.

That theory means that the likes of Soderling, Fernando Verdasco and probably Monfils aren't worth risking at short prices and instead it could pay to back title-hungry players who are looking for their first, or one of their first tournament wins.

That is what happened in the corresponding event in Kitzbuhel last year when Guillermo Garcia Lopez beat Julien Benneteau in the final in Austria, the Spaniard's first ATP Tour level title. It would also have been the Frenchman's first, had he won.

Thomaz Bellucci is at a career high of 26 in the world rankings and has been making great strides in the last 12 months, improving almost 100 ranking spots since July 2009 and he should be in the shakeup in Nice.

The left hander, who is priced around [15.0] has two titles to his name so far and should be gunning for another one here with a handy draw.

The young Brazilian has been drawn in the same section as Verdasco, but with the Spaniard looking to have injury problems in his straight sets defeat to Jurgen Melzer in his home town of Madrid last week, I wouldn't put too much faith in him here ahead of Paris.

The other seeds in that bottom half of the draw are Michael Berrer and Marcos Baghdatis and Bellucci should really be progressing to the final with that sort of opposition to contend with.

In the top half, Soderling at [3.75] Monfils at [7.0] and Albert Montanes at [20.0] are set to do battle and of these I would favour the latter at much the best price of the three.

The diminutive Spaniard retained his title in Estoril a couple of weeks ago, beating Roger Federer on the way and he was a quarter finalist in the Masters event in Monte-Carlo recently too, so he is definitely one to watch here.

Montanes is seeded to meet Soderling in the last eight and obviously much depends on the Swede's attitude towards the event.

Having reached the semis in Indian Wells and Miami before switching to clay and getting to the final in Barcelona, Sod has been in decentnick, but a poor straight sets loss to Stan Wawrinka in Rome means that he comes to Nice needing a bit of a boost.

The world number seven is of course a pretty short price to add to his current tally of five titles, but he's only won one on clay and that was in his homeland in Bastad last year so he's worth opposing.

Another to avoid in terms of value is Monfils, who has an appalling record for a top-20 player of two career titles and who has (just for a change) been struggling with injury of late.

His defeat by Nadal in Madrid was his first event since March, so he's just here for the court time ahead of Roland Garros.

Other than the mercurial Richard Gasquet, there's no-one else that looks likely to challenge for the Nice title in the top half, so the value lies with Montanes, who did beat Soderling in the only meeting between the two on clay, albeit when Sod retired at Roland Garros when behind in 2007.

So, it's worth taking a chance on Bellucci and Montanes here on the basis that they are more likely to be title-hungry and are the best value for Nice 2010.

And I would also be extremely tempted to lay Verdasco at a very skinny-looking [2.5], as I'm not convinced that he'll play and if he feels a twinge he'll surely retire. Also, Verdasco has only won three clay titles in his entire career - two of those coming at home in
Spain.

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