Events / Editor / 10 October 2007 /

Betfair's tennis guru Mandeep tells us why Nadal won't make the last four at next week's Madrid Masters and how compatriot Ferrer can make a real splash

Madrid Masters - A look ahead ...

Next week sees the resumption of the Masters Series, with Madrid playing host to what should be a fantastic tournament. With some of the top seeds having not played much since the US Open, it provides an opportunity for those seeking to make the end of season Tennis Masters Cup in China. So what is there to be said about the main contenders for the title, and who are the dark horses who may cause an upset or two?

The favourites

Roger Federer

What can be written about the world number 1 that has not already been written? Inevitably the favourite, the most pertinent question is what represents value on the great man? I expect his tournament price to be around 1.65-1.7. Even though this appears a short price to some, Federer rarely loses in an early round of any tournament. I am in big favour of backing this price, as barring injury, you will almost certainly be able to lay off before a semi final at around 1.35. I fully expect Federer to win the tournament, and therefore would be inclined to let it ride.

Rafael Nadal

The clay court King has been unimpressive since his Wimbledon final this year, and I expect that trend to continue. Nadal has improved his backhand, but his competitors are coming to terms with the topspin he generates with his extreme western grip. Nadal could struggle against a good player this year, so be prepared to lay him from the quarters onwards!

Novak Djokovic

The rising star of world tennis is expected to be the main challenger to Federer this year, and if he is in the bottom half of the draw, should be a good bet to reach the final. His solid groundstrokes together with an excellent serve mean he has a good game for the indoor courts of Madrid. However, Djokovic can struggle with back problems, and if he has to get through a few epic matches, he may suffer with fitness in the latter stages of the tournament.

The others

Nikolay Davydenko - We have evaluated Davydenko's game before, and have noted that he can struggle in windy conditions. The still conditions suit his style of taking the ball early, and dictating play.

Ivan Ljubicic - Another player we looked at in detail last week. He loves playing indoors, and his huge serve will be a potent weapon. But I doubt he has the all round game to reach a semi final.

Tomas Berdych - An interesting player who's coming of age has taken longer than expected. Berdych did reach the semi final last year, notably conquering Nadal en route. A big serve and big groundstrokes do not however make for a lack of consistency and mental weakness. If he is losing, his head often goes down.

David Ferrer - Perhaps the form player on the tour at the moment, Ferrer is definitely worth backing, and is my pick to reach a semi final. Having won the Japan Open last week, Ferrer has taken this week off, no doubt to give himself ample rest before Madrid. It is also worth noting he will have home support on his side.

David Nalbandian - Nalbandian reached the semi final last year losing to Federer in three tight sets. Despite no real form or fitness this year, I still believe he could provide a shock or two. He seems to enjoy playing indoors and Masters Series events, so this is an ideal combination.

Summary

Despite the almost inevitability of a Federer v Djokovic final, there is still enough doubt to suggest another player could make a breakthrough. Federer and Djokovic have not played much since Flushing Meadows, and their fitness and form could be questioned. Keep an eye on David Ferrer on home soil, but expect Federer to remain King in Spain. Hasta Pronto!

To find out more about the Madrid Masters:

https://www.tennis-masters-madrid.com/eng/index.htm

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