Events / Sean Calvert / 02 February 2009 /

Yes, the Australian Open is over and we have a fair wait till the next Grand Slam. But the world of tennis moves on and Sean Calvert fancies Juan Monaco to go far in the red clay of Chile this week.

After a fortnight of hard-hitting action in Melbourne, it's back to the bread and butter of the ATP 250 events, with the biggest tournament this week being on the clay of Chile.

The Movistar Open in Vina Del Mar is pretty much the sole preserve of South American red dirt specialists, the winner hailing from the home continent in 10 of the 15 renewals here.

The other winners have been from Spain, with the only odd one out being the Czech Republic's Slava Dosedel when he sprang a surprise in beating Marcelo Rios in 1995.

Rios went on to lose in the final here four times, which presumably would have tested that famously miserable temperament somewhat.

More recently Fernando Gonzalez has had fun here, winning the title last year and also in 2004 and 2002. He heads the market this time at [3.75], but I'm not sure I see any value in that wager.

Gonzalez undoubtedly has a decent chance based on past performance and there were encouraging signs in Melbourne that he is starting to return to the exciting, free hitting shotmaker of the pre-Stefanki era, but I prefer the claims of last year's finalist at a healthier price.

Juan Monaco ended 2008 in dreadful form, having stormed up the rankings to a high of 14 in February of that year, which is why he is on offer at around [15.0], but he has shown signs of a return to form and fitness of late.

Although Monaco hasn't posted much in the way of decent results in 2009 thus far, he matched Tsonga for a couple of sets in Melbourne on a surface he dislikes and a return to his favoured clay back in his native South America should suit him well.

He was matched against Gonzalez in last year's title clash, but had to withdraw through injury and [15.0] is a big enough price to make him worth a bet to repeat that form again.

The pair are seeded to meet in the quarter finals, but haven't played each other on clay since Bastad in 2004 when the Chilean came out on top in straight sets.

Other seeds in the top half of the draw are Albert Montanes ([20.0]) and Eduardo Schwank ([15.0]), while former finalist Nicolas Lapentti ([40.0]) is also in that section.

Tommy Robredo is seeded to emerge from the bottom half of the draw and can be backed at around [6.0] for the title, but that price doesn't appeal much, given the fact that he has never won a title outside Europe and never made it past the last 16 in a South American event.

The other seeds in the bottom half are Jose Acasuso ([12.0]), Agustin Calleri ([23.0]) and Oscar Hernandez ([29.0]), while finalist in 2006 and 2007 Nicolas Massu ([34.0]) is also in that section.

Massu has failed to show any form for some time now and has slipped to 84 in the world rankings on the back of a poor 2008, where he plied his trade mainly in challengers and not with any great success.

Calleri and Hernandez both have poor records here, but Acasuso appears to be one to side with to emerge from that section, given his decent record here.

The wildly inconsistent and occasionally infuriating Argentine won this in 2006 and reached the quarterfinals here last year and he is one that tends to play well in certain tournaments, so a back to lay bet at [13] could prove profitable.

An interesting wild card in Acasuso's section is Juan Ignacio Chela, who has been out of action since Roland Garros last year with a serious back injury, but who makes his return to competitive action here.

Chela's ability on comeback seems to have been overestimated by the layers, who make him a [29] shot, however they appear to have overlooked the 29-year-old Argentine's poor form prior to his injury and I'd make him more of a [80] shot personally.

In conclusion then, an outright wager on Monaco is the call and if you're feeling brave, Acasuso is worth following on a back to lay basis.

I also like the look of Diego Junqueira to take out Brian Dabul in their first round clash at around [1.78].

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