Events / Simon Mundie / 13 August 2009 /

At a stage of the Montreal Masters when there are no longer any easy matches, Simon Mundie tells us why outsider Gilles Simon can beat compatriot Tsonga. Plus who will come out on top as Andy Murray, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal also take to the court.

The first major hardcourt event of the summer so far has panned out as you would have expected on the most part, with all the usual suspects making their way through the draw. Sitting pretty at the top of the draw is the man who clearly feels he's back where he belongs, the world number one Roger Federer.

The Swiss looked in ebullient mood in his first match against Frederic Niemeyer, without ever getting out of second gear. Federer is clearly feeling on top of the world, having won the French Open, regained his coveted Wimbledon crown and watched the birth of his twins; a far cry from the bewildered man we saw in the early months of 2009. Federer is third up on the Court Central against countryman Stanislas Wawrinka, the man who sent British hearts racing on the second Monday of the Wimbledon fortnight. Federer is simply too relaxed and confident to be in any real danger of losing to his countryman, despite Wawrinka's own recent good form.

Once through, Federer will meet the winner of the third match on the BN court between the two Frenchmen, Gilles Simon and Jo Wilfried Tsonga. Neither player is in top form right now, although of the two I would suggest Tsonga's form gives the more cause for concern. He looked strangely subdued in beating Rainer Schuettler in three sets in the previous round, and appeared somewhat cumbersome by his own athletic standards. Having said that, Tsonga undoubtedly has more firepower at his disposal, and if he is on song he can blow his countryman away. And that's why Tsonga starts as favourite at [1.73]. Simon ([2.34]), however, knows how to play against Tsonga, having beaten him before, and if his opponent is once more off colour I expect him to capitalise.

In the same half of the draw, Andy Murray squares off against Juan Carlos Ferrero for the third time in as many months. The Scot won those previous two encounters on grass without dropping a set, and rightly starts as a strong [1.19] favourite. Fans of the 29 year old Spaniard can take comfort though in the fact that Ferrero ([6.0]) is currently playing as well as he did when he won the French Open, reached the US Open final and became world number one in 2003. His resurgence has been an awfully long time coming, and it could come to a shuddering halt at any moment, but it has been exciting to see him unleash that slingshot of a forehand with the same power he had when it was at its explosive peak many years ago. Ferrero has two superb wins under his belt already this week, and will be more confident knowing he faces Murray on his preferred hardcourt. Unfortunately for the Spaniard, hardcourts are Murray's favourite too, and he should still have too much in his locker for Ferrero, but the Spaniard does look an attractive proposition at that price.

The final match in that half is between Fernando Gonzalez ([2.54]) and Nikolay Davydenko ([1.65]), who has never lost to the popular Chilean. If Gonzalez's form this week is anything to go by, that losing streak isn't about to end, as he looked unimpressive in a three set win in the first round, and benefited from an injury to Tommy Haas in the second. But you never know with Gonzo, and he could come out hitting rockets, in which case there wouldn't be much Davydenko could do. This is one match I'm definitely steering clear of however.

The other side of the draw sees a fascinating encounter between man of the moment Andy Roddick, and the most improved player of 2009 Fernando Verdasco. Roddick looked to have his Wimbledon heartache out of his system in beating Igor Andreev, but Verdasco is far more of a threat than the Russian. The Spaniard dropped two games in his last match, and looked close to the sort of form that nearly beat Rafael Nadal in that epic semi-final at the Australian Open. If Verdasco can get a read on Roddick's serve, who has admitted his biggest weapon is not yet firing on all cylinders, he could dominate proceedings from the baseline and cause something of an upset.

Finally we come to Rafael Nadal and his long awaited comeback match. That should have come against Ferrer, but ironically Nadal's countryman was the man to withdraw with knee troubles having played only seven games. Don't expect Nadal ([1.21] to beat Phillip Petzschner ([5.5]) to win the tournament, to do so would be simply incredible after his lengthy break from the tour, but also don't expect him to lose to a man who has yet to prove himself at this level. It's his next round match, in all likelihood against Juan Martin Del Potro ([12.5] to win the tournament), that he should be worrying about.

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