Events / Sean Calvert / 17 April 2012 /

Sean Calvert's first day tips didn't go well but he's looking to bounce back on day with three suggested bets at the Monte Carlo Masters

It was far from a perfect start to the week's wagers in Monte Carlo on Monday, as both of my fancies were beaten on a day of eye-opening results.

The transition from hard-courts to clay often throws up some hard to fathom outcomes, as Andy Murray, who plays today, has testified to.

The Scot says that he finds it difficult to make the change initially and he has had patchy results in this tournament, where he's twice been a semi-finalist and also lost first up to the likes of Jean-Rene Lisnard.

Today, Murray plays a man who's given him trouble on clay before, Viktor Troicki, who should have beaten the Scot at Roland Garros last year.

Murray is around [1.13] for the win against a man who he has beaten on each of the four occasions they've played.

I wouldn't be touching that, but it might be worth backing the 2-0 at around [1.4] with Murray likely to beat the out-of-form Serbian comfortably.

Troicki's results in 2012 have been awful and he was hammered by Tomas Berdych in Davis Cup in his last outing prior to Monte Carlo.

An easy win over world number 393 Lisnard in round one can't mask the fact that Troicki has lost his last 21 completed matches against top-10 opponents and he hasn't beaten a top-40 opponent since Alex Bogomolov Jr in three breakers in Moscow last October.

Confidence will be low and if you're having a bet in this Murray should win 2-0, especially with the added input of Ivan Lendl ahead of the clay court swing.

There are several trappy encounters scheduled for Tuesday, with virtually all of the matches priced up as if they could go either way.

One such clash features perhaps the strangest head-to-head record on the ATP Tour.

Carlos Berlocq somehow managed to lose his first eight matches against today's opponent Potito Starace, which, along with James Blake's former 7-0 record over Nikolay Davydenko, was one of the most eye-opening of all.

Indeed, Starace won the first 14 sets that the pair contested, but it looks like the record is beginning to become a bit more respectable, as Berlocq has come out on top in the two matches that they have contested in 2012.

The last meeting between the Italian and Argentine resulted in an easy straight sets win for Berlocq and at around [1.82] I expect Berlocq to come out on top again now that he has finally managed to overcome the Starace hoodoo.

'Charly' has been in fine form on clay this year, with a final and four quarter-finals from his last five events and the only worry is that he did retire in Houston last week with a calf injury.

He has since made positive comments about that on his website though and he should have too much for Starace, who has only won three tour level matches on clay in 2012 and who suffered a 6-2, 6-0 beating in a Challenger final recently plus a 6-3, 6-0 hiding in Casablanca last week from Pablo Andujar.

The Italian has only won one match in five visits to Monte Carlo and that record could get worse today.

At least five of today's other first round matches look extremely tough to call and I wouldn't want to be picking the winners of Mayer v Kukushkin, Hanescu v Seppi, Nishikori v Ramos, Llodra v Fognini or Bellucci v Anderson.

But one favourite who does look worth taking on is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga against Phillip Kohlschreiber.

Tsonga's clay form is pretty average at best these days and although he has a 4-1 head-to-head advantage over the German, it's 1-1 on clay, with both being close matches.

The big Frenchman doesn't play Monte Carlo very often and has only won two matches here. The brave should back Kohlschreiber at around [3.2] but the play looks to be laying Tsonga 2-0 at around [2.1]

Recommended Bets
Back Murray 2-0 v Troicki at [1.4]
Lay Tsonga 2-0 v Kohlschreiber at [2.1]
Back Berlocq to beat Starace at [1.82]

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