Monte Carlo Masters Betting: The right conditions to back Verdasco

Events / Sean Calvert / 12 April 2011 /

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Fernando Verdasco has a good record in this tournament and plays well at this time of year

"But the key thing with Verdasco is catching him when he’s in the mood and I think that will be this week, as he has said that he loves this event and he has ranking points to defend here. If he's on his game he could conceivably blow Robredo away."

It's not often he likes backing Fernando Verdasco but there are circumstances at play that suggest he's the selection for Sean Calvert in an all-Spanish battle with Tommy Robredo. Here they are...

It's been a great start to the week for this column at the Monte-Carlo Masters with wins for both Feliciano Lopez and Fabio Fognini in the first two days.

My pick of Wednesday's second round matches has to be Fernando Verdasco v Tommy Robredo and the value in this all-Spanish clash has to lie in backing Verdasco.

I'm breaking all sorts of personal betting rules in Monte-Carlo this week and this is another one, as I wouldn't normally put my hard-earned in the hands of Verdy, but the [2.22] is too big to refuse today.

As you would expect, this pair have met many times, with Tommy holding
a slender 5-4 advantage and 3-0 on the red dirt.

Robredo had a very good Golden Swing in South America with one title and one semi final, but his body paid the price for that when he was forced out of Indian Wells and Miami through injury.

His first round win over Ivan Dodig was his first match since Indian Wells and he could be coming into this a little undercooked, whereas Verdasco should be fresher after a poor hard-court spell this year.

But the key thing with Verdasco is catching him when he's in the mood and I think that will be this week, as he has said that he loves this event and he has ranking points to defend here. If he's on his game he could conceivably blow Robredo away.

The Madrid man came into this after a poor Indian Wells and Miami last year and went on to reach the final (beating Novak Djokovic on the way) and followed that up by winning in Barcelona and reaching the semi finals in Rome, all on clay.

He then went on to reach another final in Nice and with all those points to defend, this is a vitally important clay swing for Verdasco, who will see his ranking drop like a stone if he doesn't show improvement in the coming weeks.

This should be motivation enough for Verdy to beat Robredo, who has just one quarter final in Monte-Carlo from eight attempts prior to this year and who generally performs below his best at this time of year.

Recommended bet

Back Verdasco to beat Robredo at around [2.22]

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