Events / Sean Calvert / 15 April 2012 /

There are some questions marks over the well-being of Rafael Nadal's knee and despite his superb form, Novak Djokovic doesn't look a great value price. The odds and the draw point us in the direction of David Ferrer, says Sean Calvert.

The clay court swing continues with the first clay Masters 1000 event of the year this week in the luxurious surroundings of the Monte Carlo Country Club.

The Monte Carlo Rolex Masters has been dominated by Rafa Nadal since he won the first of his seven titles here back in 2005 and he has now amassed an incredible 39-1 record at the tournament.

Rafa's sole loss here came in 2003 when as a 16-year-old, he was beaten by Guillermo Coria. But he has won 37 matches on the bounce at this tournament since that day.

He's a warm order to collect an eighth title this week at around [1.98] and the world number two has been handed a pretty favourable draw away from most of the big guns.
And with Roger Federer not taking part this week, despite suggestions that he may have opted to take a late wild card, Rafa's route to the latter stages doesn't look too taxing, providing he's not suffering from the knee problems he encountered in Miami.

Nadal's immediate quarter contains Florian Mayer, Nicolas Almagro, Stan Wawrinka, Radek Stepanek, Feliciano Lopez and Pablo Andujar amongst others, and of these only Mayer and Lopez have ever beaten Rafa.

That Mayer win came on a hard court in Shanghai at the back end of last year though and it's hard to see the German repeating the victory on clay in Monte Carlo, while Lopez is yet to take a set from Nadal on clay. Almagro is probably the one who will cause Nadal the most trouble in that section of the draw, but he's no outright value at around [40.0].

The adjacent quarter to Nadal's has Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Janko Tipsarevic as the high seeds, but neither is particularly effective on the red dirt and neither has ever bettered the last-16 in Monte Carlo.

So, there's an opportunity for someone to possibly take advantage and make the semi finals at the expense of Tsonga and Tipsy, with Fernando Verdasco, Milos Raonic and Gilles Simon the most likely to step up.

That section looks wide open, with Mikhail Youzhny, Phillip Kohlschreiber and Albert Montanes also possibilities to go deep this week if they can find some form.
The opposite side of the draw is packed with talent by comparison, with Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych and Juan Monaco set to battle it out for a place in the final.

Djokovic looked pretty close to his best in Miami and he'll arrive here confident of winning his first Monte Carlo title, after reaching the final in 2009.

The world number one doesn't have a fantastic record here with just that one final appearance in five attempts and he was well beaten by Verdasco on his last visit to Monte Carlo in 2010.

His price of [2.72] looks a little on the short side considering that he hasn't played a single match on the red dirt since Roland Garros last year.

But 2011 was a breakthrough year on clay for Djokovic, with tournament wins in Belgrade, Madrid and Rome to add to a French Open semi final appearance and he accrued an 18-1 record on the dirt that year.

Nole doesn't really need to adapt his game much at all for clay these days and he's a clear second favourite, but the tough draw and lack of clay court tennis is a concern at his current price.

A better bet could turn out to be Ferrer at a much more attractive price of around [28.0].

The Spaniard made the final here last year without dropping a set and he has only been beaten by Nadal in Monte Carlo in the last two years. He's currently on a run of 14 matches unbeaten on clay and in that time he's only dropped three sets in total.

Ferrer also has a decent record against Djokovic on clay, with a 3-1 head-to-head lead over the Serbian, although a tough test may come earlier than a potential quarter final with Djokovic.

The world number six is drawn in the same quarter as Monaco and the Argentine is on fire at the moment after great performances in Miami and Houston and the pair are tied at 3-3 in their head-to-head series.

Monaco might be a bit tired this week though after a lot of tennis and plenty of traveling in the last few weeks and [100.0] is probably a fair price for him.

Murray has been a semi finalist twice here and gave Nadal a good match a year ago in the last four before falling in three, but I don't see the Scot beating Djokovic, Berdych and Nadal to win the title here and so the [19.0] doesn't tempt me.

Berdych, as ever, has the game for clay and he'll be confident after a great showing in Davis Cup on the dirt, but too often he flatters to deceive and although he has every chance of making the semis for the second time, I doubt he'll go further.

So, with a bit of an injury concern over Nadal, Djokovic will fancy his chances this week, but with both top seeds pretty much unbackable at short prices, I'll take a chance on Ferrer to continue his great form on the dirt.

Recommended Bet

Back to lay Ferrer at around [26.0]

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