Events / Sean Calvert / 11 April 2011 /

Janko Tipsarevic goes into his match against Feliciano Lopez as favourite but there's no real reason for that when you consider the facts, says Sean Calvert.

The first clay-court Masters Series 1000 event has begun in Monte-Carlo and there looks to be several close-looking encounters in today's first round clashes.

The one I'm focussing on offers what could be very good value indeed as Feliciano Lopez takes on Janko Tipsarevic.

It takes a lot for me to put any sort of trust in the inconsistent Lopez, but at [2.75] the Spaniard has to be backed today against an opponent who is largely all at sea on the red dirt.

Tipsy's best results by a country mile have come on the faster courts and his record on clay over the last 18 months in particular is extremely poor.

The Serbian has lost as the favourite in the first round of his last four clay events, stretching back to the summer of 2009 and ironically, the last match he won on the surface was against Lopez in a four set tussle at Roland Garros that same year.

That win was the Serb's only success in four meetings with Lopez though and the fact that his last four losses on the surface have all been to the likes of Jeremy Chardy, Oscar Hernandez, Simon Greul and Alejandro Falla (three of them in straight sets) tells a tale about his lack of red dirt nous.

Lopez's best form also comes on the quicker surfaces, but he can play on clay, as some decent results in the clay swing last year showed.

The Spaniard reached the third round in Barcelona before losing to Robin Soderling, the quarters in Rome and the third round in Madrid, beating the likes of Marin Cilic and Alexandr Dolgopolov on the way, so his surface form is better than that of today's opponent.

Another concern for Tipsarevic fans is his record against left handers, which reads 12 wins from 31 played, a 39 percent win ratio, as opposed to his 50 percent ratio against right handers.

Lopez of course is never one to put too much faith in, but at these odds it's worth the slight risk and if you fancy a real long shot then the [4.6] about a 2-0 Lopez win is not out of the question, as Tipsy's record when losing the first set is really poor.

The Serb has lost 127 of the 142 matches in his career when he's lost the first set and he may not fancy it on this surface if he goes behind.

Recommended bet

Back Lopez to beat Tipsarevic at [2.75]

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